价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
VALUE ENGINEERING
2015年
27期
168-169
,共2页
医院%门诊人次%趋势季节模型预测
醫院%門診人次%趨勢季節模型預測
의원%문진인차%추세계절모형예측
hospital%outpatient visits%trend season models prediction
目的：应用趋势季节模型分析法总结门诊量的季节变动规律，并预测未来年度的门诊量，给领导制定工作计划提供决策依据。方法：选取近8年门诊人次资料，运用最小二乘法，计算各月季节比率，拟合直线趋势方程，剔除趋势，进行预测，得到荆州市中医医院2014年各季门诊量的预测值。结论：每年的实际门诊量季节性变动明显，医院应根据其特性合理安排医务人员的工作计划，有序的开展门诊接诊。方法选择上，趋势季节模型简便易行，预测效果理想，宜在基层医院推广使用。
目的：應用趨勢季節模型分析法總結門診量的季節變動規律，併預測未來年度的門診量，給領導製定工作計劃提供決策依據。方法：選取近8年門診人次資料，運用最小二乘法，計算各月季節比率，擬閤直線趨勢方程，剔除趨勢，進行預測，得到荊州市中醫醫院2014年各季門診量的預測值。結論：每年的實際門診量季節性變動明顯，醫院應根據其特性閤理安排醫務人員的工作計劃，有序的開展門診接診。方法選擇上，趨勢季節模型簡便易行，預測效果理想，宜在基層醫院推廣使用。
목적：응용추세계절모형분석법총결문진량적계절변동규률，병예측미래년도적문진량，급령도제정공작계화제공결책의거。방법：선취근8년문진인차자료，운용최소이승법，계산각월계절비솔，의합직선추세방정，척제추세，진행예측，득도형주시중의의원2014년각계문진량적예측치。결론：매년적실제문진량계절성변동명현，의원응근거기특성합리안배의무인원적공작계화，유서적개전문진접진。방법선택상，추세계절모형간편역행，예측효과이상，의재기층의원추엄사용。
Objective: to use trend season model analysis method to summarize the seasonal variation law of outpatient quantity and predict the outpatient quantity in the years to come, so as to provide decision basis for leader to make work plan. Method: to select the outpatient visitors information in the past 8 years and use least square method to calculate the seasonal indexes of each month. Fit linear trend equation, exclude tendency, and then make predictions to get the predicting value of the outpatient quantity of each season of Jingzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine in 2014. Conclusion:the seasonal variation of outpatient visits is apparent, so the hospital should arrange the work plan of medical staff according to its features and accept patients orderly. The trend season model is simple and convenient, so it I suitable for grassroots hospitals.
