河南农业科学
河南農業科學
하남농업과학
JOURNAL OF HENAN AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2015年
9期
54-57,76
,共5页
小麦白粉病%综合发生等级%预测%气象因子%河南省
小麥白粉病%綜閤髮生等級%預測%氣象因子%河南省
소맥백분병%종합발생등급%예측%기상인자%하남성
wheat powdery mildew%comprehensive occurrence degree%forecasting%meteorological fac-tor%Henan province
利用镇平县和伊川县1991—2010年、安阳县和项城市1991—2000年的小麦白粉病调查资料和气象观测资料，通过数理统计的方法分析影响小麦白粉病发生等级的各种气象因子，建立河南省小麦白粉病分区预测模型，并以此为基础建立河南省综合预测模型。研究表明，镇平、伊川、安阳和项城小麦白粉病发生等级均与3月份的相对湿度和上年3月下旬的温雨系数显著相关。利用以上2个气象因子建立了河南省小麦白粉病分区发生等级预测模型和综合发生等级模型。利用分区模型对2012年4个站点小麦白粉病发生等级进行预测，有3个站预测等级与实际等级相同，1个站误差在1个等级之内，基本上达到了预测要求。利用综合模型对2011年和2012年河南省小麦白粉病综合发生等级进行预测，预测结果准确率达100％。因此，建立的模型可以用于预测河南各分区和全省的小麦白粉病发生等级。
利用鎮平縣和伊川縣1991—2010年、安暘縣和項城市1991—2000年的小麥白粉病調查資料和氣象觀測資料，通過數理統計的方法分析影響小麥白粉病髮生等級的各種氣象因子，建立河南省小麥白粉病分區預測模型，併以此為基礎建立河南省綜閤預測模型。研究錶明，鎮平、伊川、安暘和項城小麥白粉病髮生等級均與3月份的相對濕度和上年3月下旬的溫雨繫數顯著相關。利用以上2箇氣象因子建立瞭河南省小麥白粉病分區髮生等級預測模型和綜閤髮生等級模型。利用分區模型對2012年4箇站點小麥白粉病髮生等級進行預測，有3箇站預測等級與實際等級相同，1箇站誤差在1箇等級之內，基本上達到瞭預測要求。利用綜閤模型對2011年和2012年河南省小麥白粉病綜閤髮生等級進行預測，預測結果準確率達100％。因此，建立的模型可以用于預測河南各分區和全省的小麥白粉病髮生等級。
이용진평현화이천현1991—2010년、안양현화항성시1991—2000년적소맥백분병조사자료화기상관측자료，통과수리통계적방법분석영향소맥백분병발생등급적각충기상인자，건립하남성소맥백분병분구예측모형，병이차위기출건립하남성종합예측모형。연구표명，진평、이천、안양화항성소맥백분병발생등급균여3월빈적상대습도화상년3월하순적온우계수현저상관。이용이상2개기상인자건립료하남성소맥백분병분구발생등급예측모형화종합발생등급모형。이용분구모형대2012년4개참점소맥백분병발생등급진행예측，유3개참예측등급여실제등급상동，1개참오차재1개등급지내，기본상체도료예측요구。이용종합모형대2011년화2012년하남성소맥백분병종합발생등급진행예측，예측결과준학솔체100％。인차，건립적모형가이용우예측하남각분구화전성적소맥백분병발생등급。
Based on the wheat powdery mildew investigation data and corresponding meteorological data from 1991 to 2010 in Zhenping county and Yichuan county, from 1991 to 2000 in Anyang county and Xiangcheng city,the meteorological factors affecting wheat powdery mildew occurrence degree were ana-lyzed,and Henan wheat powdery mildew regional and comprehensive forecasting models were built.The result showed that the wheat powdery mildew occurrence degrees of Zhenping, Yichuan, Anyang and Xiangcheng were all related to the relative humidity in March and the temperature and rainfall coefficient in late March last year,and the correlation coefficients of the four stations all passed significance test ofα=0.01.Henan wheat powdery mildew regional and comprehensive forecasting models were built using these two factors.Using the regional models to forecast the wheat powdery mildew occurrence degrees of the four stations in 2012,the forecasting degrees of three stations were the same as the real situation,and the other one had one degree of error,so the results were all in specified range.The comprehensive model was used to forecast the wheat powdery mildew occurrence degrees of Henan in 2011 and 2012,and the forecasting accuracy rate was 100%.The models can forecast the wheat powdery mildew occurrence de-gree in parts and all of Henan, and provide references for holding the wheat powdery mildew occurrence degree globally.
