CAJ | 학술논문

对于同一工程项目投资模式的比选问题在引入风险因素后更符合实际。文中引入了风险系数用于评价风险因素对项目的影响，根据各个阶段现金流量的不同特征，讨论了风险系数的选取准则。以BT和BOT模式为例，推导了考虑风险因素后，净现值、内部收益率和投资效率等主要评价指标的主要表达式。为了评价项目年度风险状况与整个项目的风险等级，文中定义了若干参数并给出了相应的表达式。最后，结合老虎潭水库项目，计算了考虑风险因素后几个重要指标的值，与未考虑风险因素相比，净现值、内部收益率与投资效率等指标均出现不同程度的下降；BOT投资模式比BT模式更易受风险因素的影响。所得结论对于投资项目评价与开发具有一定的参考价值。
대우동일공정항목투자모식적비선문제재인입풍험인소후경부합실제。문중인입료풍험계수용우평개풍험인소대항목적영향，근거각개계단현금류량적불동특정，토론료풍험계수적선취준칙。이BT화BOT모식위례，추도료고필풍험인소후，정현치、내부수익솔화투자효솔등주요평개지표적주요표체식。위료평개항목년도풍험상황여정개항목적풍험등급，문중정의료약간삼수병급출료상응적표체식。최후，결합로호담수고항목，계산료고필풍험인소후궤개중요지표적치，여미고필풍험인소상비，정현치、내부수익솔여투자효솔등지표균출현불동정도적하강；BOT투자모식비BT모식경역수풍험인소적영향。소득결론대우투자항목평개여개발구유일정적삼고개치。
It is more sensible for the topic that the management mode determination for a construction project in account of risky factors. The influence of risky factors to the project can be illustrated using risky coefficient. The selection criteria of the risky coefficient is discussed according to characteristic of cash flow in different stages. In case of BT and BOT , the formulations of net present value ( NPV) , internal rate of return ( IRR) and investment efficient( IE) are deduced in account of risky factors. In this manuscript, several parameters used for evaluating the annual risky level and risky level for the whole project are defined, respectively. In the end, the quotas mentioned above for the Laohutan reservoir are calculated in consideration of risky factors. The results of the NPV, IRR and IE are a little bit lower than the ones without risky factors. The calculation for this case reveals that the BOT mode affected by risky factors is much more sensible compared to BT mode. The conclusions achieved in this paper have certain theoretical value in evaluation and development for the project.