CAJ | 학술논문

基于 FAVAR 模型框架，选取14个大类、95个经济变量实证研究房地产价格变动对宏观经济的影响，发现 FAVAR模型能够提供比传统 VAR 模型更符合经济事实的实证结论。一方面房地产价格上升对经济依然存在短期刺激作用，但已低于先前估计，且不利于经济结构调整，最终将导致中长期经济下滑；另一方面房地产价格下降虽有利于中长期结构调整和经济增长，但其带来的短期经济下滑幅度将超出我国经济可承受范围。与此同时，房价波动将引致汇率和利率出现大幅波动，企业资产负债率出现大幅上升，融资条件恶化，进而使银行体系的稳定性受到冲击。灵活运用房地产调控措施，适度放松房地产调控政策，推进户籍改革，维持房地产价格稳定应成为现阶段房地产政策的重中之重。
기우 FAVAR 모형광가，선취14개대류、95개경제변량실증연구방지산개격변동대굉관경제적영향，발현 FAVAR모형능구제공비전통 VAR 모형경부합경제사실적실증결론。일방면방지산개격상승대경제의연존재단기자격작용，단이저우선전고계，차불리우경제결구조정，최종장도치중장기경제하활；령일방면방지산개격하강수유리우중장기결구조정화경제증장，단기대래적단기경제하활폭도장초출아국경제가승수범위。여차동시，방개파동장인치회솔화리솔출현대폭파동，기업자산부채솔출현대폭상승，융자조건악화，진이사은행체계적은정성수도충격。령활운용방지산조공조시，괄도방송방지산조공정책，추진호적개혁，유지방지산개격은정응성위현계단방지산정책적중중지중。
By implementing FAVAR model,based on 95 economic variables in 14 categories,this paper empirical studied the influence of house price changes on macroeconomic stability.We find that our result is more effective than previous results which used VAR models.The rise of house price has an important influence on economic growth in the short -term,but smaller than previous estimate and is harmful to the adjustment of economic structure in the long -term. However,the fall of house price lead to the fluctuations of exchange rate and interest rate,the sharp rise in asset -liability ratio,and the sharp slowdown in economy in the short -term.Regulating the house market in a more flexible way (such as relaxing home -purchase restrictions and the reform of household registration system),which is aimed to maintain the house price stability,is the key point of the current policies.