CAJ | 학술논문

已有的 NKMP －DSGE 模型将企业数量看做固定的常数，这与现实经济中企业进入和退出不断发生的事实不符。本文基于包含企业进入和退出的金融冲击 NKMP －DSGE 模型考察了金融冲击对于中国经济波动的影响。金融冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显著支持了金融危机期间中国政府采用非常规货币政策刺激经济的做法；模型比较的结果表明，未包含企业动态的模型在低估正向的金融冲击对于中国经济复苏作用的同时，还夸大了其对于通胀上升的效应。贝叶斯冲击分解的结果表明，货币政策冲击是中国产出波动的最主要推动力，金融冲击则次之，但在金融危机期间，逆向的总需求冲击是导致中国产出下行的主要因素。在此基础上，贝叶斯模型选择检验的结果表明，包含企业动态的模型相对较好地刻画了中国经济的现实。
이유적 NKMP －DSGE 모형장기업수량간주고정적상수，저여현실경제중기업진입화퇴출불단발생적사실불부。본문기우포함기업진입화퇴출적금융충격 NKMP －DSGE 모형고찰료금융충격대우중국경제파동적영향。금융충격적패협사맥충향응함수현저지지료금융위궤기간중국정부채용비상규화폐정책자격경제적주법；모형비교적결과표명，미포함기업동태적모형재저고정향적금융충격대우중국경제복소작용적동시，환과대료기대우통창상승적효응。패협사충격분해적결과표명，화폐정책충격시중국산출파동적최주요추동력，금융충격칙차지，단재금융위궤기간，역향적총수구충격시도치중국산출하행적주요인소。재차기출상，패협사모형선택검험적결과표명，포함기업동태적모형상대교호지각화료중국경제적현실。
This article considers a financial shocks NKMP -DSGE model with firm dynamics and investigates the effect of financial shocks on the fluctuations of China’s economy.The Bayesian impulse response functions of financial shocks support the unconventional monetary policy during the financial crisis.The results of model comparison argues that the model with firm dynamics may under -estimate the effect of financial shocks on the on the survival of China’s economy,and over -estimate its effect on inflation.Further,the result of Bayesian shocks decomposition shows that,monetary policy shocks is the most important factor in the fluctuations of China’s output,financial shocks is the secondary.But during the financial crisis,the aggregate demand shocks plays the most important role in the downward of output.Then, Bayesian model comparison testing shows that the model with firm dynamics fit the actual data better.