CAJ | 학술논문

针对航班延误情形下机场次生衍生事件问题进行研究，提出了基于事件链的链式安全管理模型。通过安全评估参数和引导词构建危险事件集，求解次生衍生事件可达矩阵，构建事件链拓扑图。并基于BA无标度网络研究分析事件的可能性、严重程度、安全风险容忍度、子网节点数、所含支链数，确定了处置事件的先后顺序。实例表明，为防止旅客异常情绪发生，合理安排航班，能有效控制事件链的蔓延与发展，提出了断链减灾的风险缓解控制策略。
침대항반연오정형하궤장차생연생사건문제진행연구，제출료기우사건련적련식안전관리모형。통과안전평고삼수화인도사구건위험사건집，구해차생연생사건가체구진，구건사건련탁복도。병기우BA무표도망락연구분석사건적가능성、엄중정도、안전풍험용인도、자망절점수、소함지련수，학정료처치사건적선후순서。실례표명，위방지여객이상정서발생，합리안배항반，능유효공제사건련적만연여발전，제출료단련감재적풍험완해공제책략。
This paper presented a safety management chain model based on the event chain aiming at the research of secondary and derived events at the airport in the case of flight delay .First this paper built an emergency event set with the introduction of safety assessment parameters and guide words ,solved the ac-cessible matrix of secondary and derived events and drew a topological graph about the event chain ,then analysed the possibility ,severity ,risk tolerance ,node subnet number and the contained branched numbers based on BA scaling network ,and then determined the sequence of events .The experiment results show that to prevent the occurrence of abnormal emotion of passengers and make reasonable arrangements for the flight can effective control the spread and development of the event chain .At last ,the paper proposed a scheme of chain scission and disaster reduction to relieve and control risk .