CAJ | 학술논문

本文以“等维灰数递补动态模型”对“人口发展方程”的流动人口预测部分作了修正,从而构建大城市人口态势综合预测模型,并对成都市2005~2030年包括流动—迁移人口在内的总人口及其结构变动作了预测。本预测结果的一般性政策含义是,在维持现行低生育水平不变的前提下,人口年龄金字塔的内缩,人口结构全面深度老化的趋势不因人口流迁而改变。为此,作者提出了相应的对策思考。
본문이“등유회수체보동태모형”대“인구발전방정”적류동인구예측부분작료수정,종이구건대성시인구태세종합예측모형,병대성도시2005~2030년포괄류동—천이인구재내적총인구급기결구변동작료예측。본예측결과적일반성정책함의시,재유지현행저생육수평불변적전제하,인구년령금자탑적내축,인구결구전면심도노화적추세불인인구류천이개변。위차,작자제출료상응적대책사고。
Based on Population Development Equation which is amended by the "equal-dimension gray dynamic model filling vacancies in the proper order",the paper establishes a metropolis population forecast model and forecasts the population trend of Chengdu city in the period of 2005 to 2030.The results of the forecast demonstrate that in future the aged population structure and the trend of population aging up would never be changed despite amounts of immigrants increasing to the city if the current low fer...