CAJ | 학술논문

在同时考虑贸易部门和非贸易部门的情况下,实际汇率贬值会增加贸易部门就业,但会减少非贸易部门就业,对实际工资的影响则是不确定的.按照理论分析的结果,文章对人民币实际汇率和中国两部门实际工资及就业的关系进行协整检验,结果发现:人民币实际汇率贬值显著增加贸易部门就业,但非贸易部门就业对实际汇率变动不敏感,而两部门的实际工资和实际汇率之间则都没有协整关系存在.进一步检验发现实际汇率变动对就业在贸易和非贸易部门之间的结构也没有影响.总的结论认为,即使考虑到非贸易部门,人民币实际汇率升值对整个就业也是不利的,而贬值有利于整个就业.
재동시고필무역부문화비무역부문적정황하,실제회솔폄치회증가무역부문취업,단회감소비무역부문취업,대실제공자적영향칙시불학정적.안조이론분석적결과,문장대인민폐실제회솔화중국량부문실제공자급취업적관계진행협정검험,결과발현:인민폐실제회솔폄치현저증가무역부문취업,단비무역부문취업대실제회솔변동불민감,이량부문적실제공자화실제회솔지간칙도몰유협정관계존재.진일보검험발현실제회솔변동대취업재무역화비무역부문지간적결구야몰유영향.총적결론인위,즉사고필도비무역부문,인민폐실제회솔승치대정개취업야시불리적,이폄치유리우정개취업.
Considering both tradable sector and nontradable sector, we think that depreciation of the real exchange rate will increase the employment of tradable sector, yet decrease that of nontradable sector and its effect on real wages is ambiguous. According to those theoretical results, we conduct cointegration test on the RMB real exchange rate and both employment and real wages of China＇s those two sectors. The results are： depreciation of RMB will increase employment of tradable sector significantly; but for employment of nontradable sector, there is no significant response to the change of real exchange rate; real wages in both sectors and the RMB real exchange rate appear no cointegration relations. Further, we find that the change of real exchange rate has no effect on the employment structure between tradable sector and nontradable sector. In conclusion, the appreciation of RMB is much more likely to damage the total employment, while depreciation is good for the total employment.