中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2006年
1期
58~61
,共null页
经济发展 环境保护 “三废” 环境库兹涅茨曲线 环境与发展综合决策
經濟髮展 環境保護 “三廢” 環境庫玆涅茨麯線 環境與髮展綜閤決策
경제발전 배경보호 “삼폐” 배경고자열자곡선 배경여발전종합결책
economic development; environmental protection; ＂three wastes＂; environmental Kuznets curve; compotmd decision on environment and development
经济增长与环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）来描述。典型的EKC一般量倒U形。本文选取1988-2002年的山东省环境与经济数据．建立单位GDP污染排放量横型和人均GDP污染排放量模型，对山东省经济发展与环境保护之间的关系进行了计量与分析。通过单位GDP污染负荷模型分析发现。单位GDP的污染负荷量下降态势。这说明山东省产业结构调整已产生明显成效。通过人均GDP污染排放量模型发现．山东省的EKC不完全符合典型的库兹涅茨曲线特征。呈显着的三次曲线特点。其中，工业废水曲线为“U＋倒U”形．两个转折点的理论计算值分别为3416元和9975元。废气与固废曲线近似于倒U形EKC的左半部分．尚来到达转折点。由此可见．环境质量的改善并非随着收入水平的提高而自动发生。除了收入因素。影响山东省EKC的因素还有国家或地区的环境政策、工业化进程等。
經濟增長與環境汙染之間的關繫常用環境庫玆涅茨麯線（EKC）來描述。典型的EKC一般量倒U形。本文選取1988-2002年的山東省環境與經濟數據．建立單位GDP汙染排放量橫型和人均GDP汙染排放量模型，對山東省經濟髮展與環境保護之間的關繫進行瞭計量與分析。通過單位GDP汙染負荷模型分析髮現。單位GDP的汙染負荷量下降態勢。這說明山東省產業結構調整已產生明顯成效。通過人均GDP汙染排放量模型髮現．山東省的EKC不完全符閤典型的庫玆涅茨麯線特徵。呈顯著的三次麯線特點。其中，工業廢水麯線為“U＋倒U”形．兩箇轉摺點的理論計算值分彆為3416元和9975元。廢氣與固廢麯線近似于倒U形EKC的左半部分．尚來到達轉摺點。由此可見．環境質量的改善併非隨著收入水平的提高而自動髮生。除瞭收入因素。影響山東省EKC的因素還有國傢或地區的環境政策、工業化進程等。
경제증장여배경오염지간적관계상용배경고자열자곡선（EKC）래묘술。전형적EKC일반량도U형。본문선취1988-2002년적산동성배경여경제수거．건립단위GDP오염배방량횡형화인균GDP오염배방량모형，대산동성경제발전여배경보호지간적관계진행료계량여분석。통과단위GDP오염부하모형분석발현。단위GDP적오염부하량하강태세。저설명산동성산업결구조정이산생명현성효。통과인균GDP오염배방량모형발현．산동성적EKC불완전부합전형적고자열자곡선특정。정현착적삼차곡선특점。기중，공업폐수곡선위“U＋도U”형．량개전절점적이론계산치분별위3416원화9975원。폐기여고폐곡선근사우도U형EKC적좌반부분．상래도체전절점。유차가견．배경질량적개선병비수착수입수평적제고이자동발생。제료수입인소。영향산동성EKC적인소환유국가혹지구적배경정책、공업화진정등。
The EKC curve is often used to describe the relation between economic growth and environmental degradation, and typically in the inverted U shape With the 1988 - 2002 economic and environmental data in Shandong Province, models of industrial waste discharge per unit GDP and industrial waste discharge per capita GDP have been established, and the relationship between environment protection and economic development has been analyzed. By industrial waste discharge per unit GDP model, we find that the pollution load per unit GDP displays a downward trend, which indicates the adjustment of industrial structure has yielded significant results. By the model of industrial waste discharge in relation to GDP per capita, the paper finds that the relation of economic development and environmental pollution in Shandong province does not conform to the typical shape of EKC, but conforms to the three-time hmetion, in which, the waste water EKC takes the shape of U plus inverted U, and the simulated calculation values of its two turning points are 3416 yuan and 9975 yuan respectively. The curves of waste gas and solid waste are both taking the shape of the left half part of inverted U, and have not reached their turning points yet. In conclusion, the improvement of environmental quality can＇t occur automatically, economic income, national or regional environmental policy and industrial process are all the factors that lead to EKC in Shandong Province.
