CAJ | 학술논문

技术预见在科技发展战略、政策和规划制定中的作用日益显著，受到政府、学术界和社会公众的广泛关注。德尔菲调查是技术预见最常用的方法。本文在借鉴国内外德尔菲调查问卷设计经验基础上，提出了一套适合“中国未来20年技术预见研究”需要的德尔菲调查问卷问题设计、技术课题产生和德尔菲调查问卷统计分析方法。最后，作者提出了未来德尔菲调查方法研究中需要进一步思考的问题。
기술예견재과기발전전략、정책화규화제정중적작용일익현저，수도정부、학술계화사회공음적엄범관주。덕이비조사시기술예견최상용적방법。본문재차감국내외덕이비조사문권설계경험기출상，제출료일투괄합“중국미래20년기술예견연구”수요적덕이비조사문권문제설계、기술과제산생화덕이비조사문권통계분석방법。최후，작자제출료미래덕이비조사방법연구중수요진일보사고적문제。
Technology Foresight plays increasingly important role in strategy - , policy - and planning - making of science and technology, and therefore receives highly attention from government, academia and the public. The Delphi survey is one of the most popular tools in the technology foresight, in which questionnaire - designing plays critical role. Based on the foreign and domestic experiences in questionnaire - designing for Delphi survey, this paper develops a methodology for Delphi survey including questionnaire - designing, topics selection and statistical method of survey results so as to meet the requirements of. Technology Foresight of China towards 2020. Finally, the paper points out that there are still many questions in methodology concerning future Delphi survey.