CAJ | 학술논문

金融发展和经济增长之间关系的研究存在着理论分歧。我们以“两分法”为理论媒介，运用VAR模型协整关系的递归估计方法，对我国金融结构和经济增长的关联性进行了分析。结果显示：金融发展和经济增长之间的均衡关系在1999年第1季度到2000年第4季度发生了结构突变，这是亚洲金融危机后我国采取的一系列经济和金融调控措施的结果。我们还评价了我国经济政策，尤其是金融政策对于两者关系的短期冲击和长期均衡的影响，从而为未来金融体制改革提供可以借监柏依据
금융발전화경제증장지간관계적연구존재착이론분기。아문이“량분법”위이론매개，운용VAR모형협정관계적체귀고계방법，대아국금융결구화경제증장적관련성진행료분석。결과현시：금융발전화경제증장지간적균형관계재1999년제1계도도2000년제4계도발생료결구돌변，저시아주금융위궤후아국채취적일계렬경제화금융조공조시적결과。아문환평개료아국경제정책，우기시금융정책대우량자관계적단기충격화장기균형적영향，종이위미래금융체제개혁제공가이차감백의거
In this paper we introduce the theoretical difference between the studies of the financial development and the economic growth. By ＂The Theory of Dichotomy＂ and using recursive estimation in cointegrated VAR model, we analyze the relationship between the financial structure and the economic growth. There is a sudden structure change in the relationship between financial structure and economic growth in the period of 1999 Q1-2000 Q4 due to the economic and financial adjustment after the Asian Financial Crises. Then we evaluate the influence of the past economic policies in China on their relationship, especially the short-term impact and the long-term equilibrium. Thus we can assess the impact of bypast policies and present suggestions for the future reform of the financial system.