数量经济技术经济研究
數量經濟技術經濟研究
수량경제기술경제연구
The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics
2006年
5期
20~30
,共null页
农民消费行为 不确定性 过度敏感性 生命周期特征
農民消費行為 不確定性 過度敏感性 生命週期特徵
농민소비행위 불학정성 과도민감성 생명주기특정
Farmer Consumption Behavior; Uncertainty; Excess Sensitivity; Life-cycle Characteristic
本文运用现代消费理论和经济计量模型，对中国转型期的农民消费行为影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明，当前影响农民消费行为的因素主要来自包括自然、市场和制度在内的不确定性、对当期收入的过度敏感性，以及农民消费行为所表现出的生命周期特征三个方面，上述影响农民消费的因素实际上反映出了我国农村市场化进程的滞后。因此，要提高农民收入和消费水平，必须积极推动以市场化为核心的农村制度改革。对此，本文提出了一些政策建议。
本文運用現代消費理論和經濟計量模型，對中國轉型期的農民消費行為影響因素進行實證分析。研究錶明，噹前影響農民消費行為的因素主要來自包括自然、市場和製度在內的不確定性、對噹期收入的過度敏感性，以及農民消費行為所錶現齣的生命週期特徵三箇方麵，上述影響農民消費的因素實際上反映齣瞭我國農村市場化進程的滯後。因此，要提高農民收入和消費水平，必鬚積極推動以市場化為覈心的農村製度改革。對此，本文提齣瞭一些政策建議。
본문운용현대소비이론화경제계량모형，대중국전형기적농민소비행위영향인소진행실증분석。연구표명，당전영향농민소비행위적인소주요래자포괄자연、시장화제도재내적불학정성、대당기수입적과도민감성，이급농민소비행위소표현출적생명주기특정삼개방면，상술영향농민소비적인소실제상반영출료아국농촌시장화진정적체후。인차，요제고농민수입화소비수평，필수적겁추동이시장화위핵심적농촌제도개혁。대차，본문제출료일사정책건의。
This text applies the modern consumption theory and econometric model to empirically study China＇s farmer consumption behavior in the period of transition. The study indicates; nowadays, influencing factors of farmer consumption behavior mainly include uncertainty which contains nature uncertainty, market uncertainty and institution uncertainty, excess sensitivity to current income and life-cycle characteristic of farmer consumption behavior. And the conclusion points out that influencing factors on farmer consumption behavior actually reflect the lag in the rural market oriented process. Therefore, it is necessary to actively promote the rural system reform concerning marketization as the core in order to raise the level of farmer＇s income and consumption. Accordingly, this text puts forward some policy advices.
