CAJ | 학술논문

目前，我国担保公司测算风险缺乏理论依据。为此，针对我国担保公司测算风险的现状，并在对我国房地产的风险状况、居民的收入水平、贷款利率水平等因素分析的基础上，运用精算有关理论，建立了担保余额的测算模型。该模型首次引入选择期的概念，并对一些人群的选择期作出假定，以便更加有效地定量分析风险。另外该模型还可作为担保公司准备金的评估模型，并能够对担保公司投资资金的有效运用及风险防范起同样的作用。
목전，아국담보공사측산풍험결핍이론의거。위차，침대아국담보공사측산풍험적현상，병재대아국방지산적풍험상황、거민적수입수평、대관리솔수평등인소분석적기출상，운용정산유관이론，건립료담보여액적측산모형。해모형수차인입선택기적개념，병대일사인군적선택기작출가정，이편경가유효지정량분석풍험。령외해모형환가작위담보공사준비금적평고모형，병능구대담보공사투자자금적유효운용급풍험방범기동양적작용。
At present, guarantee firms＇calculation of risks is short of theoretical support in China. So, in light of the status quo of Chinese guarantee firms＇calculation of risks, we establish a guarantee balance calculation model in line with actuarial theory, taking into account of the risks faced by realtors, the average income of local residents, the interest level of loans, etc. This model introduces the idea of choosing period and makes assumption on certain groups of people so as to more effectively calculate the guarantee risks. In addition, this model can be used as the assessment model for guarantee firms to prepare reserves and help use guarantee firms＇ investment funds effectively and shirk risks.