CAJ | 학술논문

当前房地产发展处于资本相对过剩的环境，无论是国内还是国际上，资金都处于“超级流动”状态。在国内消费物价格指数未出现大幅度上涨的情况下，过量供应的货币转向了回报率高的资产市场，并将房地产市场推向了高价格和高空置率的双高状态，显示出房地产具有典型资产市场投资特性。这一分析提供了一个为什么自2003年以来中央政府不断加大调控力度，但从实际运行的情况来看，房地产业仍严重陷入“越调控越上涨”的怪圈的一个基本背景解释。另外，政府的宏观调控尤其是房地产调控涉及到中央和地方博弈以及多个部门，虽然中央政府试图用组合拳来调控房地产市场，但由于受不同利益取向的约柬，多只看得见的手在本位主义的驱使下相互牵制，从而大大抵消了调控的效果，最终使得房地产调控出现了看不见的手打败了多只看得见的手的始料未及的结果。
당전방지산발전처우자본상대과잉적배경，무론시국내환시국제상，자금도처우“초급류동”상태。재국내소비물개격지수미출현대폭도상창적정황하，과량공응적화폐전향료회보솔고적자산시장，병장방지산시장추향료고개격화고공치솔적쌍고상태，현시출방지산구유전형자산시장투자특성。저일분석제공료일개위십요자2003년이래중앙정부불단가대조공력도，단종실제운행적정황래간，방지산업잉엄중함입“월조공월상창”적괴권적일개기본배경해석。령외，정부적굉관조공우기시방지산조공섭급도중앙화지방박혁이급다개부문，수연중앙정부시도용조합권래조공방지산시장，단유우수불동이익취향적약간，다지간득견적수재본위주의적구사하상호견제，종이대대저소료조공적효과，최종사득방지산조공출현료간불견적수타패료다지간득견적수적시료미급적결과。
This paper points out that real estate in the background of capital market is relatively in over supply, capital is in the condition of super fluidity both at home and abroad. Since the consumer price index does not increase by a big margin, surplus currency tums to the assets market, and leads to the high price and high Housing Vacancy Rate in the real estate market, which makes it more typically characteristic of investing rather than consuming. This analysis explains that the central govemment has been strengthening macro-adjustment and control since 2003, but real estate industry is actually running in a vicious circle of ＂stronger control, higher price＂. Although the central government tried to regulate the real estate market by a series of policies, different departments and regional govemments have different interests, therefore the policies themselves were undermined by each other. Pinned down by different interest groups and departmental egoism, several visible hands hold each other back and counteract the effects of macro-control. Finally an invisible hand defeats several visible hands.