管理科学
管理科學
관이과학
Management Sciences in China
2006年
3期
18~26
,共null页
新产品 决策情势 关联因素 动力学机理 演进
新產品 決策情勢 關聯因素 動力學機理 縯進
신산품 결책정세 관련인소 동역학궤리 연진
new product ; decision circumstance ; relating factor ; dynamics mechanism ; evolution
决策行为带采决策情势的演进,进而为企业进一步的行为选择提出了新挑战。在此演进过程中,需揭示随行为结果变动而引发的利害相关各方的行为变动趋向和力度,并在此基础上推测未采的行为变化。是否开发新产品与其预期效益以及实现的风险有关,也与产品开发成功的可能性有关,预期效益主要取决于未来市场的需求,而市场的需求取决于消费者的需要与选择。客户对产品的品质判断主要基于产品个性功能的判断,产品的共性功能和产品类别的选择与客户可支配收入的高低有关,而产品个性功能的判断则与客户的需求品位有关。复杂行为源自其内在的系统结构,系统动力学的模型模拟力求揭示复杂系统结构、功能与行为之间的互动演进关系,而判择变量作为一个嵌入变量可以实现其他方法与系统动力学模拟的结合,从而既体现时点状态的研判选择,又实现状态的动态递进。
決策行為帶採決策情勢的縯進,進而為企業進一步的行為選擇提齣瞭新挑戰。在此縯進過程中,需揭示隨行為結果變動而引髮的利害相關各方的行為變動趨嚮和力度,併在此基礎上推測未採的行為變化。是否開髮新產品與其預期效益以及實現的風險有關,也與產品開髮成功的可能性有關,預期效益主要取決于未來市場的需求,而市場的需求取決于消費者的需要與選擇。客戶對產品的品質判斷主要基于產品箇性功能的判斷,產品的共性功能和產品類彆的選擇與客戶可支配收入的高低有關,而產品箇性功能的判斷則與客戶的需求品位有關。複雜行為源自其內在的繫統結構,繫統動力學的模型模擬力求揭示複雜繫統結構、功能與行為之間的互動縯進關繫,而判擇變量作為一箇嵌入變量可以實現其他方法與繫統動力學模擬的結閤,從而既體現時點狀態的研判選擇,又實現狀態的動態遞進。
결책행위대채결책정세적연진,진이위기업진일보적행위선택제출료신도전。재차연진과정중,수게시수행위결과변동이인발적리해상관각방적행위변동추향화력도,병재차기출상추측미채적행위변화。시부개발신산품여기예기효익이급실현적풍험유관,야여산품개발성공적가능성유관,예기효익주요취결우미래시장적수구,이시장적수구취결우소비자적수요여선택。객호대산품적품질판단주요기우산품개성공능적판단,산품적공성공능화산품유별적선택여객호가지배수입적고저유관,이산품개성공능적판단칙여객호적수구품위유관。복잡행위원자기내재적계통결구,계통동역학적모형모의력구게시복잡계통결구、공능여행위지간적호동연진관계,이판택변량작위일개감입변량가이실현기타방법여계통동역학모의적결합,종이기체현시점상태적연판선택,우실현상태적동태체진。
Decision behavior brings out the evolution of decision circumstance, and puts forward new challenges for further behavior choosing of enterprise. During the process of evolution, it is necessary to discover the behavior altering tendency and the strength of various associating aspects brought by the alteration of behavior result. Whether products are developed or not is not only involved with expected benefit and risks but also involved with possibilities of product development's success. The expected benefit is mainly determined by the future market demand, while the market demand is determined by wants and choices of consumers. The client' s judgment to a product's character is mainly based on the product's personal character. The common function and sort choice of product have relation with client's disposable income, while the personal function of product has relation with client's taste. Complex behavior initiated in its inherent architecture, the model of System Dynamics tries to explore the mutual evolving relations among complex system architecture, function and behaviors. Meanwhile, judging variant as an embedded variant can implement the combination of other methods and system dynamics, which indicates the judging choice of time point state, and realizes dynamic progression of state.