CAJ | 학술논문

中国经济在过去26年间持续快速增长，高增长的动力是什么？未来10—20年，能否继续保持这种态势？引起了国内外广泛的关注。本文通过建立中国经济增长的综合因素模型，得出如下基本结论：资本投入增加是中国经济增长最主要的源泉，包括结构升级、人力资本效率提高、制度变迁等在内的技术进步的贡献也较强，劳动投入增加的贡献相对较弱，这与中国劳动力供给相对过剩、劳动边际效率较低有关。未来16年，中国经济仍可望继续保持适度较快增长，但要达到目前的高速度，将面临投资率继续增高，能源约束加大等矛盾。大力转变经济增长方式是解决这一症结的根本途径。
중국경제재과거26년간지속쾌속증장，고증장적동력시십요？미래10—20년，능부계속보지저충태세？인기료국내외엄범적관주。본문통과건립중국경제증장적종합인소모형，득출여하기본결론：자본투입증가시중국경제증장최주요적원천，포괄결구승급、인력자본효솔제고、제도변천등재내적기술진보적공헌야교강，노동투입증가적공헌상대교약，저여중국노동력공급상대과잉、노동변제효솔교저유관。미래16년，중국경제잉가망계속보지괄도교쾌증장，단요체도목전적고속도，장면림투자솔계속증고，능원약속가대등모순。대력전변경제증장방식시해결저일증결적근본도경。
China＇s economy has experienced high rate of growth over last 26 years. What are the main driving forces？ and is it likely to be sustainable in the coming 10--2 years？ This paper gets the following research results by using production model of integrated factors： the growth of capital investment is the key factor of economic growth, moreover, technical progress, including upgrade of economic structure, improvement of human capital efficiency and institutional transition, contribute much as well, contribution from input of labour force is not significant, largely due to the relative labour surplus and lower marginal labour efficiency. In the next 16 years, an appropriate rapid economic growth will be maintained, but the growth will be slowdown gradually because of constrains of energy, land and water supply. Changing the pattern of economic growth will be a basic and necessary solution.