CAJ | 학술논문

一、房地产预警研究现状及分析在房地产市场预警方面，目前的理论研究大多局限在建立房地产指标体系方面。发表在国际学术刊物上的唯一文章Huangand Wang（2005）也是着重介绍房地产市场预警的指标体系。就国内的研究，张志杰和陈龙乾（2004）总结了我国学术界的现有研究成果：陈健容提出我国房地产监测体系应包含宏观监测与微观监测，梁运斌给出了将房地产业预警预报系统分为景气分析系统、预警信号系统、行业监测系统和景气调查系统四个部分的构想．丁立宏提出我国的房地产市场监测指标体系应包括房地产景气指标体系与房地产预警指标体系，袁贤祯根据宏观经济预警的理论提出了房地产业监测预警体系的功能、运作思路及景气指标体系的设置等。
일、방지산예경연구현상급분석 재방지산시장예경방면，목전적이론연구대다국한재건립방지산지표체계방면。발표재국제학술간물상적유일문장Huangand Wang（2005）야시착중개소방지산시장예경적지표체계。취국내적연구，장지걸화진룡건（2004）총결료아국학술계적현유연구성과：진건용제출아국방지산감측체계응포함굉관감측여미관감측，량운빈급출료장방지산업예경예보계통분위경기분석계통、예경신호계통、행업감측계통화경기조사계통사개부분적구상．정립굉제출아국적방지산시장감측지표체계응포괄방지산경기지표체계여방지산예경지표체계，원현정근거굉관경제예경적이론제출료방지산업감측예경체계적공능、운작사로급경기지표체계적설치등。
The house price in China has risen dramatically recently, which has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. The present paper constructs an early-warning model that is capable of forecasting, and estimates the model using monthly Beijing data. We find that the current house price is closely related to the house price of last period and the house price of the same period last year; meanwhile,the house price is also influenced strongly by the land cost, vacancy area and disposable income of city residents, among other factors. The empirical analysis shows that the housing market in Beijing is basically normally developed. It was overheated in 1997, and in 2005 the house price was relatively high but not overheated.