财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2006年
7期
63~72
,共null页
财务预警 财务因素 非财务因素
財務預警 財務因素 非財務因素
재무예경 재무인소 비재무인소
financial forecast warning; financial factors; non-financial factors
以往公司财务预警研究主要基于财务指标预测公司财务状况。文章强调，对于转轨时期的中国企业财务预警研究，基于财务指标的分析，虽然能够给出财务困境发生的概率，但却难以给出财务困境的深层次解释，特别地，对于财务困境早期预警具有较大局限性。鉴于此，文章在财务指标分析的基础上，引入公司治理、投资者保护等因素，综合分析上市公司亏损困境的原因，并比较分析了基于财务、非财务指标及综合指标的预测模型的有效性，进而提出相关政策建议。
以往公司財務預警研究主要基于財務指標預測公司財務狀況。文章彊調，對于轉軌時期的中國企業財務預警研究，基于財務指標的分析，雖然能夠給齣財務睏境髮生的概率，但卻難以給齣財務睏境的深層次解釋，特彆地，對于財務睏境早期預警具有較大跼限性。鑒于此，文章在財務指標分析的基礎上，引入公司治理、投資者保護等因素，綜閤分析上市公司虧損睏境的原因，併比較分析瞭基于財務、非財務指標及綜閤指標的預測模型的有效性，進而提齣相關政策建議。
이왕공사재무예경연구주요기우재무지표예측공사재무상황。문장강조，대우전궤시기적중국기업재무예경연구，기우재무지표적분석，수연능구급출재무곤경발생적개솔，단각난이급출재무곤경적심층차해석，특별지，대우재무곤경조기예경구유교대국한성。감우차，문장재재무지표분석적기출상，인입공사치리、투자자보호등인소，종합분석상시공사우손곤경적원인，병비교분석료기우재무、비재무지표급종합지표적예측모형적유효성，진이제출상관정책건의。
Present literatures on corporate financial forecast warning are mainly based on financial measures model. This paper, however,argues that although forecasting models based on financial measures may be effective in forecasting the probability of corporate financial distress, it can not be used to provide deep explanations for why getting into financial distress during China＇s economic transition period. Especially, it can hardly be applied to forecast the early financial distress. Considering of this and based on the analysis of financial measures, this paper synthetically analyzes the deep reasons for listed companies＇ financial losses with corporate governance and investor protection taken into account. This paper also examines the validity of forecasting models that contain financial, non-financial and comprehensive measures, and then provides relevant policy suggestions for listed firms.
