数量经济技术经济研究
數量經濟技術經濟研究
수량경제기술경제연구
The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics
2006年
8期
127~135
,共null页
缓冲储备模型 预防性储蓄 核密度估计 目标储蓄率
緩遲儲備模型 預防性儲蓄 覈密度估計 目標儲蓄率
완충저비모형 예방성저축 핵밀도고계 목표저축솔
Buffer-Stock Model; Precautionary Saving; Target Saving Ratios
通过应用缓冲储备模型,实证检验我国居民的教育、医疗、住房等开支的不确定性与储蓄之间的相关性,我们发现,我国居民的预防性储蓄行为不仅显著,而且以目标储蓄率为被解释变量的模型,能够比以储蓄水平为被解释变量的模型更好地解释我国居民的“预防性储蓄”动机。建立完善的医疗保障体系、改革教育体制是降低我国巨额储蓄的必经之路。
通過應用緩遲儲備模型,實證檢驗我國居民的教育、醫療、住房等開支的不確定性與儲蓄之間的相關性,我們髮現,我國居民的預防性儲蓄行為不僅顯著,而且以目標儲蓄率為被解釋變量的模型,能夠比以儲蓄水平為被解釋變量的模型更好地解釋我國居民的“預防性儲蓄”動機。建立完善的醫療保障體繫、改革教育體製是降低我國巨額儲蓄的必經之路。
통과응용완충저비모형,실증검험아국거민적교육、의료、주방등개지적불학정성여저축지간적상관성,아문발현,아국거민적예방성저축행위불부현저,이차이목표저축솔위피해석변량적모형,능구비이저축수평위피해석변량적모형경호지해석아국거민적“예방성저축”동궤。건립완선적의료보장체계、개혁교육체제시강저아국거액저축적필경지로。
By empirically testing with the buffer-stock model, the correlation between the uncertainty of expenditure in education, housing, and medical service and the savings for the Chinese, we find that the Chinese precautionary saving behavior is significant. Furthermore, our results also show that the precautionary saving motivation is better explained by the models with target ratios as the dependent variable than those with the saving levels as dependent variables. It is absolutely necessary to establish a sound medical protection system as well as to make further progress in education reforms so that the large size of our savings can be reduced.