CAJ | 학술논문

文章以第四、五次人口普查资料为依据，对未来30年西藏自治区的人口规模和结构的变动作了预测。基于预测数据的分析显示．近年来随着妇女总和生育率的下降，西藏正处在人口快速转变之中。本研究表明,2010～2030年间西藏将会出现劳动力适龄人口比例最大、社会总负担比最轻的“人口红利”期。为此，西藏需以新的改革、发展思路迅速提高人口．特别是农牧区人口的教育文化素质，从而促进人口向人力资源的转化。作者针对西藏当前教育性人力资源开发中的主要问题提出的对策建议是：（1）通过人口的适度集中，提高西藏教育资源的利用效率；（2）面对未来25年人口规模和结构变动，对西藏各地区的小学、初中、高中、大学的学校布局、经费投入、师资力量、教学设备等资源配置作相应的调整以提高教育性人力资本的投资效益。
문장이제사、오차인구보사자료위의거，대미래30년서장자치구적인구규모화결구적변동작료예측。기우예측수거적분석현시．근년래수착부녀총화생육솔적하강，서장정처재인구쾌속전변지중。본연구표명,2010～2030년간서장장회출현노동력괄령인구비례최대、사회총부담비최경적“인구홍리”기。위차，서장수이신적개혁、발전사로신속제고인구．특별시농목구인구적교육문화소질，종이촉진인구향인력자원적전화。작자침대서장당전교육성인력자원개발중적주요문제제출적대책건의시：（1）통과인구적괄도집중，제고서장교육자원적이용효솔；（2）면대미래25년인구규모화결구변동，대서장각지구적소학、초중、고중、대학적학교포국、경비투입、사자역량、교학설비등자원배치작상응적조정이제고교육성인력자본적투자효익。
Based on the data from the 4^th and 5^th Census,this paper forecasts the Scale and structure of population in Tibet Autonomous Region in next 30 years, The results of forecast demonstrate that with Total Fertility Rate （TFR）of the women declining, Tibet is in the process of rapid demographic transition, which means Tibet would probably obtain the ＂demographic bonus＂in the period of 2010 to 2030. Meanwhile,there will be higher proportion of labors and smaller dependency ratio of population in this area. So it is essential to enhance quality of population, especially decrease illiteracy ratio of the population in rural areas. Therefore, authors offer some suggestions about redistributing the educational resorrce in order to raise the efficicncy of the educational human capital investment.