CAJ | 학술논문

以7～10届全国运动会田径比赛各项目前三名成绩的平均值作为研究对象，利用灰色理论的GM（1，1）模型方法探讨了全运会田径项目的发展变化态势，旨在为08年北京奥运会寻找基石和突破口。结果显示，男子竞走、跨栏跑等项目；女子中长跑、竞走、标枪、铅球、链球等项目应为08年北京奥运会中国代表团的重点发展项目。在此基础上，利用三数据建模预测法建立了全运会田径成绩的预测模型，并对十运会田径成绩进行预测，然后与实际成绩进行对比，结果多数项目的预测精确度很高，达到了预期的目的。
이7～10계전국운동회전경비새각항목전삼명성적적평균치작위연구대상，이용회색이론적GM（1，1）모형방법탐토료전운회전경항목적발전변화태세，지재위08년북경오운회심조기석화돌파구。결과현시，남자경주、과란포등항목；녀자중장포、경주、표창、연구、련구등항목응위08년북경오운회중국대표단적중점발전항목。재차기출상，이용삼수거건모예측법건립료전운회전경성적적예측모형，병대십운회전경성적진행예측，연후여실제성적진행대비，결과다수항목적예측정학도흔고，체도료예기적목적。
Taking the average scores of the top three athletes in track and field events from the 7th to 10th National Sports Games as research subject,utilizing the model of GM（1, 1） of the grey theory, this paper aims at looking for the foundation and breakthrough for the 08 Beijing Olympic Games. It is indicated that such events as men＇s speed walking, hurdle race, women＇s middledistance race, speed walking, javelin ,shot ,hammer ,etc. should be the key developing event of the Chinese delegation in 08 Beijing Olympic Games. On this basis,three-data modeling to predict France is made use of to set up the prediction model for the performance of track and field in National Sports Games. At the same time ,the performance of track and field events in the Tenth National Games is predicted and compared with actual performance. It is found that the prediction of the results of most of the events is very accurate,which has achieved the anticipated goal.