CAJ | 학술논문

我国能源发展战略正在由主要关注能源系统供需平衡，转向关注能源与经济、环境的协调发展。这涉及到技术、成本、资金与环境等一系列问题。其中的关键问题是，在目前的经济、技术条件下，如何通过能源结构的优化，使得经济增长和环境保护的目标都能实现。本文将这一问题转化为运用多目标决策方法，对与社会经济、环境协调发展的能源结构优化模型进行研究，并运用所构建的模型对2020年我国能源结构进行优化。通过对优化结果的分析讨论得出几点结论：1．能源结构发生变化，2．深度利用煤炭资源，3．能源安全问题需要重视，4进一步加快水电建设，5积极发展核电，6．提高煤炭转换成电力的比重，7．高度重视新能源和可再生能源的开发和利用。
아국능원발전전략정재유주요관주능원계통공수평형，전향관주능원여경제、배경적협조발전。저섭급도기술、성본、자금여배경등일계렬문제。기중적관건문제시，재목전적경제、기술조건하，여하통과능원결구적우화，사득경제증장화배경보호적목표도능실현。본문장저일문제전화위운용다목표결책방법，대여사회경제、배경협조발전적능원결구우화모형진행연구，병운용소구건적모형대2020년아국능원결구진행우화。통과대우화결과적분석토론득출궤점결론：1．능원결구발생변화，2．심도이용매탄자원，3．능원안전문제수요중시，4진일보가쾌수전건설，5적겁발전핵전，6．제고매탄전환성전력적비중，7．고도중시신능원화가재생능원적개발화이용。
The contents of energy development strategy have been changing from showing concern for balance between supply and demand of energy system to showing concern for coordinative development among energy social-economy and environment. This change would deal with a series of problems in technology, cost, finance and environment. It is essential to achieve the aims of economic growth and environmental protection together through the energy structure optimizing in the present posture of economy and technology. According to the theory of a multi-objective decision, this thesis studies and builds an optimum model of energy structure in coordinative development among energy social-economy and environment. This model has an application in energy structure optimizing of China in the future of 2020 years. The calculation shows as follows：l. Energy structure will be changed; 2. Coal resource will be used more and efficiently; 3. The problem of energy safety needs to be regarded; 4. Water power should be built with a further speed; 5. Nuclear power will play an important role in promoting the coordinative development among energy economy and environment so as to be developed actively; 6, Increase the proportion of transforming coal into fire power; 7. Highly attach importance to exploit and utilize the new energy and renewable energy.