CAJ | 학술논문

对全国和30个省区未来51种生育方案进行近百年模拟和比较选择，结果显示，只要考虑到年龄结构因素，无论在全国层面，还是在省区层面，现行生育政策都未能进入优选方案，无论从哪个层面看，现行生育政策或调整、或完善都势在必行。优选结果又表明，“尽快二孩”方案的优势在全国并不具有普遍性。在全国层面和省区层面有着较大普遍性的优选方案是15年后实行中口径或大口径的一代独生子女政策。这是因为2000年分独生女、非独生女和家庭户其他女性的年龄金字塔有两个驼峰。一个是30岁左右，一个是11岁左右。第一个驼峰由母亲一代构成。第二个驼峰由子女一代构成，子女一代中又以非独生女为主。如果在这两个驼峰女性陆续退出生育旺盛期，即现行生育政策再稳定15年以后，再适当放宽政策，出生人口、相应地婴幼儿规模就不会突然膨胀了，那时即使放宽到所有妇女普遍生两个，也不会有太大问题。生育政策调整，在注意预防年龄结构过度老化时，也要避免另一种形式的年龄结构问题，即某年龄组人口剧烈波动给经济社会造成的影响。
대전국화30개성구미래51충생육방안진행근백년모의화비교선택，결과현시，지요고필도년령결구인소，무론재전국층면，환시재성구층면，현행생육정책도미능진입우선방안，무론종나개층면간，현행생육정책혹조정、혹완선도세재필행。우선결과우표명，“진쾌이해”방안적우세재전국병불구유보편성。재전국층면화성구층면유착교대보편성적우선방안시15년후실행중구경혹대구경적일대독생자녀정책。저시인위2000년분독생녀、비독생녀화가정호기타녀성적년령금자탑유량개타봉。일개시30세좌우，일개시11세좌우。제일개타봉유모친일대구성。제이개타봉유자녀일대구성，자녀일대중우이비독생녀위주。여과재저량개타봉녀성륙속퇴출생육왕성기，즉현행생육정책재은정15년이후，재괄당방관정책，출생인구、상응지영유인규모취불회돌연팽창료，나시즉사방관도소유부녀보편생량개，야불회유태대문제。생육정책조정，재주의예방년령결구과도노화시，야요피면령일충형식적년령결구문제，즉모년령조인구극렬파동급경제사회조성적영향。
This paper simulates 51 basic trends of future fertility changes both for the country as a whole and 30 provincial regions in the country in one hundred years. The study shows that as long as we consider the age structure of the population, the current fertility policy couldn＇t be selected into our optimal projections for the whole country as well as the provincial level. It means that the current fertility policy must be adjusted or improved. On the other hand, optimal selections of our project show that case of ＂one couple two children, the sooner the better＂ is not suitable for the whole country. The best selection both for the whole country and for the sub-regions is the case of ＇middle or large specifications of one couple one child for one generation fertility policy for another 15 years＂. In 2000, there were two humps of age pyramid both for one-child and non-one-child female populations, one 30 years in age, the other 11 years in age. The first hump is composed of mothers and the other of their children, most of them being non-one-child. It means that these children have sisters or brothers. If these two humps of women withdraw from their vigorous reproductive age, or in other words, if the current fertility policy would go on for another 15 years, it is now time to relax restrictions on the fertility policy. The births of a younger population will not suddenly increase. If so, even if every woman gives two births, there would not be a big problem. It is worth noting that fertility policy adjustment should avoid two problems of age structure change, one being population aging, the other the negative effects of social and economic development resulting from age structure changes.