中国地质大学学报：社会科学版
中國地質大學學報：社會科學版
중국지질대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
2006年
6期
32~36
,共null页
彭莉 朱镇 单新萍 俞良蒂
彭莉 硃鎮 單新萍 俞良蒂
팽리 주진 단신평 유량체
上市公司 经营失败 行业细分 财务预警
上市公司 經營失敗 行業細分 財務預警
상시공사 경영실패 행업세분 재무예경
listed company; business failure; industry-specific; finance prediction
依据文献本文构建了一套包括17个指标的经营失败预警指标体系，根据2001-2005年上市公司的财务报表数据，采用Logistic回归．在区分制造和非制造两类行业基础上建立企业经营失败的预警模型。研究显示．分行业预警模型不仅总体预测精度高于混合行业模型，而且犯一类错误的概率明显低于混合行业模型．大大降低预测风险。具有较高的推广价值。
依據文獻本文構建瞭一套包括17箇指標的經營失敗預警指標體繫，根據2001-2005年上市公司的財務報錶數據，採用Logistic迴歸．在區分製造和非製造兩類行業基礎上建立企業經營失敗的預警模型。研究顯示．分行業預警模型不僅總體預測精度高于混閤行業模型，而且犯一類錯誤的概率明顯低于混閤行業模型．大大降低預測風險。具有較高的推廣價值。
의거문헌본문구건료일투포괄17개지표적경영실패예경지표체계，근거2001-2005년상시공사적재무보표수거，채용Logistic회귀．재구분제조화비제조량류행업기출상건립기업경영실패적예경모형。연구현시．분행업예경모형불부총체예측정도고우혼합행업모형，이차범일류착오적개솔명현저우혼합행업모형．대대강저예측풍험。구유교고적추엄개치。
This paper firstly establishes integrated ratio system which includes 17 ratios based on statistics from other similar literatures. By the classification of two typical industries of manufacturing and non-manufacturing samples, three predictive models（manufacturing, non manufacturing and mixed industries） are established by Logistic analysis using the data of listed companies. The results show that （1） the predic tive ability of industry-specific models is much better than that of mixed industries model, and （2） the ability of distinguishing ST company from non-ST company is very strong. This provides us with direct evidenee that the use of industry-specific samples can reduce predictive risk.
