CAJ | 학술논문

采用队列要素法并运用第五次人口普查数据，通过年龄移算，预测了不引入人口迁移因素时2001—2050年间陕西省人口规模及结构；然后引入省际人口迁移因素，在计算出年龄别净迁移率的基础上，预测了2001—2050年间陕西省人口规模及结构；最后采用总体法精算模型，运用陕西省城镇职工基本养老保险相关统计资料，测算出2001—2050年间陕西省基本养老保险基金收支规模。发现引入省际人口迁移因素后，陕西省基本养老保险基金收支缺口明显缩小，在老龄化初期就出现了基金结余。
채용대렬요소법병운용제오차인구보사수거，통과년령이산，예측료불인입인구천이인소시2001—2050년간합서성인구규모급결구；연후인입성제인구천이인소，재계산출년령별정천이솔적기출상，예측료2001—2050년간합서성인구규모급결구；최후채용총체법정산모형，운용합서성성진직공기본양로보험상관통계자료，측산출2001—2050년간합서성기본양로보험기금수지규모。발현인입성제인구천이인소후，합서성기본양로보험기금수지결구명현축소，재노령화초기취출현료기금결여。
Using the cohort-component method and the fifth census data, and through age-shift calculation, the authors first give the prediction on the population size and structure of Shaanxi Province between 2001 and 2050 without considering the population migration factor. Then, with the inter-provincial migration factor introduced and the rate of net migration calculated, the population size and structure of Shaanxi Province between 2001 and 2050 has been predicted. By using the overall actuarial method and related statistical data of the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Shaanxi Province, the authors calculate the payments scale of basic old-age insurance fund finding that the basic old-age insurance fund payments in Shaanxi Province has significantly narrowed the gap and an active fund balance appears at the same time in the initial stage of aging of population after Inter-provincial Migration factors is introduced.