系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2007年
3期
150~154
,共null页
卫星成本预测 蒙特卡洛方法 二次拟合检验
衛星成本預測 矇特卡洛方法 二次擬閤檢驗
위성성본예측 몽특잡락방법 이차의합검험
satellite cost estimation; Monte Carlo model; fit and examine two times
针对传统的卫星成本预测模型没有包括相应的不确定性因素，提出了基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型，用以解决主要由技术风险引起的不确定性．针对利用该模型模拟得出的分布曲线可能介于两种标准分布之间的情况，提出了二次拟合检验的思想，提高了拟合的精度．最后，将收集到的相关数据代入该模型并与常用的卫星成本预测方法进行比较，其精度大约提高了10％．可见，使用蒙特卡洛方法进行卫星成本的预测具有较好的精确度．
針對傳統的衛星成本預測模型沒有包括相應的不確定性因素，提齣瞭基于矇特卡洛方法的衛星成本預測模型，用以解決主要由技術風險引起的不確定性．針對利用該模型模擬得齣的分佈麯線可能介于兩種標準分佈之間的情況，提齣瞭二次擬閤檢驗的思想，提高瞭擬閤的精度．最後，將收集到的相關數據代入該模型併與常用的衛星成本預測方法進行比較，其精度大約提高瞭10％．可見，使用矇特卡洛方法進行衛星成本的預測具有較好的精確度．
침대전통적위성성본예측모형몰유포괄상응적불학정성인소，제출료기우몽특잡락방법적위성성본예측모형，용이해결주요유기술풍험인기적불학정성．침대이용해모형모의득출적분포곡선가능개우량충표준분포지간적정황，제출료이차의합검험적사상，제고료의합적정도．최후，장수집도적상관수거대입해모형병여상용적위성성본예측방법진행비교，기정도대약제고료10％．가견，사용몽특잡락방법진행위성성본적예측구유교호적정학도．
After analysis, the paper points out that the traditional satellite cost estimation models does not include the corresponding uncertainties, and unable to understand these influences on cost of factor, it cannot predict the accident. Then, this paper put forward Monte Carlo model deal with the uncertainties caused by technological problems, after that, the paper carries on further research to this model, under the basis of the thing that X2 fits and examines, direct against that the distribution curve drawn to simulation may lie between two kinds of standards distributing, the thought of putting forward the second time firing examining, has improved the precision of firing. Finally, it puts collected corresponding data into this model and compares with the traditional satellite cost estimation method, the precision almost increase 10%. Therefore, we can see that using Monte Carlo method to estimate satellite cost can get better precision.
