数量经济技术经济研究
數量經濟技術經濟研究
수량경제기술경제연구
The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics
2007年
5期
43~52
,共null页
农村居民 城镇居民 消费倾向 状态空间模型
農村居民 城鎮居民 消費傾嚮 狀態空間模型
농촌거민 성진거민 소비경향 상태공간모형
Rural Residents; Urban Residents; Consumption Propensity; State Space Model
本文运用时变参数模型对农村居民的消费倾向进行了估计，从制度变迁、收入变动、理性预期等角度对农村居民消费倾向的演变路径进行了诠释。与城镇居民消费倾向相比，农村居民消费倾向经历了先低-后高-再低这样一个动态的演变过程；20世纪90年代以来，农村居民消费倾向的降幅明显地大于城镇居民。同时发现，城镇居民消费对农村居民消费具有明显的示范效应和拉动作用。
本文運用時變參數模型對農村居民的消費傾嚮進行瞭估計，從製度變遷、收入變動、理性預期等角度對農村居民消費傾嚮的縯變路徑進行瞭詮釋。與城鎮居民消費傾嚮相比，農村居民消費傾嚮經歷瞭先低-後高-再低這樣一箇動態的縯變過程；20世紀90年代以來，農村居民消費傾嚮的降幅明顯地大于城鎮居民。同時髮現，城鎮居民消費對農村居民消費具有明顯的示範效應和拉動作用。
본문운용시변삼수모형대농촌거민적소비경향진행료고계，종제도변천、수입변동、이성예기등각도대농촌거민소비경향적연변로경진행료전석。여성진거민소비경향상비，농촌거민소비경향경력료선저-후고-재저저양일개동태적연변과정；20세기90년대이래，농촌거민소비경향적강폭명현지대우성진거민。동시발현，성진거민소비대농촌거민소비구유명현적시범효응화랍동작용。
Rural residents＇ consumption propensity is estimated using time-varying model, and its evolvement path is given out from the viewpoint of institutional variance, income variance and rational anticipation, etc. in this paper, Compared with urban residents＇ consumption propensity, rural residents＇ consumption propensity has experienced a dynamic evolvement of first lower, then higher, again lower; since 1990s, the drop breadth of rural residents＇ consumption propensity has been distinctly greater than that of urban residents. Another founding is that rural residents＇ consumption is distinctly influenced by that of urban residents.
