CAJ | 학술논문

为明晰未来十年我国消费服务类行业发展的前景和特征，从而为确定消费服务类公司估值的参数提供依据，本文以人口红利为切入点，探讨了人口红利对国民经济和消费服务行业发展的作用机制。本文认为，人口红利是国民经济增长的必要条件，其作用能否成为显性结果还要受到宏观经济调控因素的影响。同时，本文分析了农副食品加工业、食品加工业和食品制造业投资与人口转变的关系，结合消费者的教育、城市化、消费倾向等特征变化，指出了未来消费服务类行业公司的发展趋势和公司估值应注意的问题。
위명석미래십년아국소비복무류행업발전적전경화특정，종이위학정소비복무류공사고치적삼수제공의거，본문이인구홍리위절입점，탐토료인구홍리대국민경제화소비복무행업발전적작용궤제。본문인위，인구홍리시국민경제증장적필요조건，기작용능부성위현성결과환요수도굉관경제조공인소적영향。동시，본문분석료농부식품가공업、식품가공업화식품제조업투자여인구전변적관계，결합소비자적교육、성시화、소비경향등특정변화，지출료미래소비복무류행업공사적발전추세화공사고치응주의적문제。
This paper is a review of the impact of population dividend on national economy as well as consumption and service industries for the purpose of defining the prospect and characteristics of these industries. Although essential to economic development, the author believes that the result of population dividend is affected by macro-economic factors. The author also analyzes how processing industry of agricultural and non-staple food, food processing industry and food manufacturing investment are related to population. Based on changes in consumer education, urbanization and consumption trend, the author delivers his thoughts on the development trend of consumption and service industries in China and challenges to be met.