西北农林科技大学学报：社会科学版
西北農林科技大學學報：社會科學版
서북농림과기대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Northwest Sci-Tech University of Agriculture and Forestry(Social Science)
2007年
3期
42~48
,共null页
营销风险 贝叶斯网络 主成分分析 D-S证据理论 BN分析模型
營銷風險 貝葉斯網絡 主成分分析 D-S證據理論 BN分析模型
영소풍험 패협사망락 주성분분석 D-S증거이론 BN분석모형
marketing risk; Bayes network; principal components analysis; dempster-shafer evidence theory; BN analysis model
由于营销环境的多变性、营销系统的不稳定性和营销管理的复杂性,从而使得企业营销具有较高的风险性。营销风险的大小由风险发生概率和风险损失幅度决定,而在实践中,概率大小是难以确定的。本文通过贝叶斯网络（BN）的结构学习和概率学习,综合先验信息和后验信息,结合企业实际构建了营销风险评价指标体系和BN分析模型,进行了营销风险概率推断,在此基础上进行了营销风险评价。
由于營銷環境的多變性、營銷繫統的不穩定性和營銷管理的複雜性,從而使得企業營銷具有較高的風險性。營銷風險的大小由風險髮生概率和風險損失幅度決定,而在實踐中,概率大小是難以確定的。本文通過貝葉斯網絡（BN）的結構學習和概率學習,綜閤先驗信息和後驗信息,結閤企業實際構建瞭營銷風險評價指標體繫和BN分析模型,進行瞭營銷風險概率推斷,在此基礎上進行瞭營銷風險評價。
유우영소배경적다변성、영소계통적불은정성화영소관리적복잡성,종이사득기업영소구유교고적풍험성。영소풍험적대소유풍험발생개솔화풍험손실폭도결정,이재실천중,개솔대소시난이학정적。본문통과패협사망락（BN）적결구학습화개솔학습,종합선험신식화후험신식,결합기업실제구건료영소풍험평개지표체계화BN분석모형,진행료영소풍험개솔추단,재차기출상진행료영소풍험평개。
Due to the variability of marketing environment, uncertainty of marketing system and the complexity of marketing management, enterprises will confront higher risk in marketing. The measurement of the marketing risk is decided by both the probability of risk and the risk loss range. However, the probability is difficult to be determined in practice. Through the study of Bayes network structure and the probability, synthesizing the prior information and posterior information, index system for evaluating marketing risk and BN analysis model are established in the paper, and probability of marketing risk is deduced. Finally,marketing risk is evaluated by the methods proposed in the paper.
