管理学报
管理學報
관이학보
Chinese JOurnal of Management
2007年
3期
336~340
,共null页
甘筱青 胡凯 阮陆宁
甘篠青 鬍凱 阮陸寧
감소청 호개 원륙저
高校新校区 贷款规模 还贷策略 Rubinstein讨价还价模型 博弈分析
高校新校區 貸款規模 還貸策略 Rubinstein討價還價模型 博弈分析
고교신교구 대관규모 환대책략 Rubinstein토개환개모형 박혁분석
new campus; loans size; repaying loan strategy; rubinstein bargaining model; game analysis
运用不完全信息博弈模型对高校新校区建设贷款规模进行分析，得出在政府埋单的预期下借贷规模会超出高校自身财务约束条件下的理性规模；利用高校利润模型，分析了还贷策略，指出政府必须与高校共同承担还贷责任；然后应用Rubinstein讨价还价模型对双方还贷比例进行了分析，并通过算例得出高校承担61．5％、政府承担38．5％是一个较为合理的还贷比例；最后给出了政策建议。
運用不完全信息博弈模型對高校新校區建設貸款規模進行分析，得齣在政府埋單的預期下藉貸規模會超齣高校自身財務約束條件下的理性規模；利用高校利潤模型，分析瞭還貸策略，指齣政府必鬚與高校共同承擔還貸責任；然後應用Rubinstein討價還價模型對雙方還貸比例進行瞭分析，併通過算例得齣高校承擔61．5％、政府承擔38．5％是一箇較為閤理的還貸比例；最後給齣瞭政策建議。
운용불완전신식박혁모형대고교신교구건설대관규모진행분석，득출재정부매단적예기하차대규모회초출고교자신재무약속조건하적이성규모；이용고교리윤모형，분석료환대책략，지출정부필수여고교공동승담환대책임；연후응용Rubinstein토개환개모형대쌍방환대비례진행료분석，병통과산례득출고교승담61．5％、정부승담38．5％시일개교위합리적환대비례；최후급출료정책건의。
The loan for constructing new campus in university was studied by incomplete information game analysis. It was deduced that the loan size in the prospect of the government＇s imbursement would exceed the rational size restricted by university-self finance, through analyzing the loan size of new campus construction by game model. All ways of repaying were analyzed by the university profit model. It was drown that the government must share the liability with university. The debt proportion that government and university partake by Rubinstein-bargaining model was discussed and a reasonable proportion was got. university assuming about 61.5% and government about 38.5% of all by way of illustration. Some recommendations are also proposed.
