改革
改革
개혁
Reform
2007年
7期
48~53
,共null页
流动性过剩 资产价格 货币政策
流動性過剩 資產價格 貨幣政策
류동성과잉 자산개격 화폐정책
excess monetary liquidity, asset price, monetary policy
我国近年来存在流动性过剩现象，而且货币缺口逐年扩大。格兰杰因果检验与协整检验显示，流动性过剩指标与房地产价格之间存在显著的因果关系。对发展中国家而言，房地产价格泡沫破裂的危害要超过股票价格泡沫。我国通过控制货币和信贷数量来挤压房地产泡沫具有可行性与必要性。而控制股票市场泡沫则难以通过货币政策取得良好成效。因为实证结果不支持流动性过剩指标与股票价格之间的因果关系。
我國近年來存在流動性過剩現象，而且貨幣缺口逐年擴大。格蘭傑因果檢驗與協整檢驗顯示，流動性過剩指標與房地產價格之間存在顯著的因果關繫。對髮展中國傢而言，房地產價格泡沫破裂的危害要超過股票價格泡沫。我國通過控製貨幣和信貸數量來擠壓房地產泡沫具有可行性與必要性。而控製股票市場泡沫則難以通過貨幣政策取得良好成效。因為實證結果不支持流動性過剩指標與股票價格之間的因果關繫。
아국근년래존재류동성과잉현상，이차화폐결구축년확대。격란걸인과검험여협정검험현시，류동성과잉지표여방지산개격지간존재현저적인과관계。대발전중국가이언，방지산개격포말파렬적위해요초과고표개격포말。아국통과공제화폐화신대수량래제압방지산포말구유가행성여필요성。이공제고표시장포말칙난이통과화폐정책취득량호성효。인위실증결과불지지류동성과잉지표여고표개격지간적인과관계。
It is concluded that monetary liquidity of China is in excess in recent years and monetary gap is growing by several measures of excess liquidity. Granger causality tests and cointegration tests reveal that there is a cointegration relationship between excess liquidity and real estate price and there are many instances of circular Granger causality between them. And for developing countries, harm brought by real estate price bubble burst is generally more severe than that by equity price bubble burst. Therefore, China should control money supply and credit to squeeze real estate bubble. Similarly, monetary tightening policy can not squeeze the equity price bubble for causality does not run from excess liquidity to equity price.
