国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2007年
8期
39~46
,共null页
比较优势 人民币汇率 一般均衡分析 协整检验
比較優勢 人民幣彙率 一般均衡分析 協整檢驗
비교우세 인민폐회솔 일반균형분석 협정검험
Comparative Advantages; RMB Exchange Rate; A General Equilibrium Model; Co-Integration Analysis
改革开放以来,我国传统的外生比较优势下降,但同时内生比较优势不断增强,并且后者的作用大于前者,综合比较优势增强。综合比较优势的增强,使我国企业的国际竞争力不断提高,我国净出口和外商直接投资不断上升,国际收支和贸易收支“双顺差”增大,人民币汇率面临较强的升值压力。本文构建了考虑比较优势的一般均衡汇率模型,并用于对人民币均衡汇率的实证研究,实证结果表明综合比较优势的增强推动着人民币汇率的升值,2003-2005年的人民币汇率存在一定程度的低估。
改革開放以來,我國傳統的外生比較優勢下降,但同時內生比較優勢不斷增彊,併且後者的作用大于前者,綜閤比較優勢增彊。綜閤比較優勢的增彊,使我國企業的國際競爭力不斷提高,我國淨齣口和外商直接投資不斷上升,國際收支和貿易收支“雙順差”增大,人民幣彙率麵臨較彊的升值壓力。本文構建瞭攷慮比較優勢的一般均衡彙率模型,併用于對人民幣均衡彙率的實證研究,實證結果錶明綜閤比較優勢的增彊推動著人民幣彙率的升值,2003-2005年的人民幣彙率存在一定程度的低估。
개혁개방이래,아국전통적외생비교우세하강,단동시내생비교우세불단증강,병차후자적작용대우전자,종합비교우세증강。종합비교우세적증강,사아국기업적국제경쟁력불단제고,아국정출구화외상직접투자불단상승,국제수지화무역수지“쌍순차”증대,인민폐회솔면림교강적승치압력。본문구건료고필비교우세적일반균형회솔모형,병용우대인민폐균형회솔적실증연구,실증결과표명종합비교우세적증강추동착인민폐회솔적승치,2003-2005년적인민폐회솔존재일정정도적저고。
Since China's Reform and Openness, endogenous comparative advantages have been weakened and exogenous comparative advantages have been strengthened. The role of the latter is greater than that of the former, and then the comprehensive comparative advantages have been strengthened. The rise of the comprehensive comparative advantages promotes the international competitiveness of China's enterprises, which increases the surplus of balance of payments and international trade and adds pressure on the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Taking comparative advantages into considerations, this study builds a general equilibrium exchange rate model and uses it to do quantitative analyses on RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The empirical results show that the rise of the comprehensive comparative advantages drives the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate from 2003 to 2005 is undervalued to some extent.