福建师范大学学报：哲学社会科学版
福建師範大學學報：哲學社會科學版
복건사범대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Fujian Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edtion)
2007年
5期
20~23
,共null页
居民储蓄 经济增长 实证研究 Granger检验
居民儲蓄 經濟增長 實證研究 Granger檢驗
거민저축 경제증장 실증연구 Granger검험
residents saving, economic growth, empirical study, Granger test
居民储蓄高低的判断是备受关注同时也是颇有争议的问题，纯理论分析很难给出一个明确的答案，但提供了实证研究的逻辑和思路。通过对1985-2004年我国居民储蓄的估算发现，居民储蓄率并不和居民储蓄额一样呈明显上升趋势，但二者均显著不是我国经济增长的Granger原因。因此，现阶段我国居民储蓄是偏高的，基本政策导向应该是提高居民储蓄一投资转化效率和适当降低居民储蓄的有效结合。
居民儲蓄高低的判斷是備受關註同時也是頗有爭議的問題，純理論分析很難給齣一箇明確的答案，但提供瞭實證研究的邏輯和思路。通過對1985-2004年我國居民儲蓄的估算髮現，居民儲蓄率併不和居民儲蓄額一樣呈明顯上升趨勢，但二者均顯著不是我國經濟增長的Granger原因。因此，現階段我國居民儲蓄是偏高的，基本政策導嚮應該是提高居民儲蓄一投資轉化效率和適噹降低居民儲蓄的有效結閤。
거민저축고저적판단시비수관주동시야시파유쟁의적문제，순이론분석흔난급출일개명학적답안，단제공료실증연구적라집화사로。통과대1985-2004년아국거민저축적고산발현，거민저축솔병불화거민저축액일양정명현상승추세，단이자균현저불시아국경제증장적Granger원인。인차，현계단아국거민저축시편고적，기본정책도향응해시제고거민저축일투자전화효솔화괄당강저거민저축적유효결합。
The theme of whether the residents saving is high or low in our country is very notable and disputable, and it is difficult to draw an explicit judgment by pure theoretical analysis, but＇the theories provides us the logic and illumination for the empirical study. After the estimation and empirical analysis of the residents saving from 1985 to 2004 in our county, we found that the residents saving-rate didn＇t increase evidently as same as its quantity, but neither the rate nor the quantity is a Granger cause for our economic growth. So we deem that the residents saving is a little high in present stage, and the basic economic policy should be the suitable combination of both enhancing the efficiency of saving-investment transformation and decreasing the residents saving appropriately.
