中国人民大学学报
中國人民大學學報
중국인민대학학보
Journal of Renmin University of China
2007年
5期
69~76
,共null页
金融一体化 亚洲货币合作 最优货币区 可行性
金融一體化 亞洲貨幣閤作 最優貨幣區 可行性
금융일체화 아주화폐합작 최우화폐구 가행성
financial integration; Asian monetary cooperation ; optimal currency area ; possibility
在总结区域货币合作基本理论的基础上,对亚洲货币合作可行性的研究表明:亚洲地区仅在某些方面符合构建最优货币区的基本条件,而在一些重要方面尚存有欠缺。此外,并非所有国家之间进行货币合作都具备条件。因此,亚洲尚不具备建立一个真正意义上、有制度保障、以汇率目标区为主体的货币合作机制的条件。现实的选择是,小型开放经济体可以根据各自的不同情况,选择最优合作伙伴,逐步推进次区域货币合作。
在總結區域貨幣閤作基本理論的基礎上,對亞洲貨幣閤作可行性的研究錶明:亞洲地區僅在某些方麵符閤構建最優貨幣區的基本條件,而在一些重要方麵尚存有欠缺。此外,併非所有國傢之間進行貨幣閤作都具備條件。因此,亞洲尚不具備建立一箇真正意義上、有製度保障、以彙率目標區為主體的貨幣閤作機製的條件。現實的選擇是,小型開放經濟體可以根據各自的不同情況,選擇最優閤作夥伴,逐步推進次區域貨幣閤作。
재총결구역화폐합작기본이론적기출상,대아주화폐합작가행성적연구표명:아주지구부재모사방면부합구건최우화폐구적기본조건,이재일사중요방면상존유흠결。차외,병비소유국가지간진행화폐합작도구비조건。인차,아주상불구비건립일개진정의의상、유제도보장、이회솔목표구위주체적화폐합작궤제적조건。현실적선택시,소형개방경제체가이근거각자적불동정황,선택최우합작화반,축보추진차구역화폐합작。
Traditional theory of monetary cooperation can be traced back to the theory of Optimum Currency Area pioneered by Robert Mundell and consists of "the theory of Optimum Currency Area", "the theory of One Market One Money", "the theory of ‘GG-LL’" and "the theory of some positive methods". According to all these theories, the demand for regional monetary cooperation is based on economic conditions including the level of economic interdependence, regional trade and capital flow, economic openness, factor mobility and the level of economic development. The degree of the integration of East Asian nations becomes higher and higher, as is mainly represented by the big amount of trade and capital flow, the high level of economic openness. When considering the factor mobility, the interdependence of financial market, the level of economic development, the economic structure and the likelihood of economic policy, we could find that there is still a long way to regional monetary cooperation in East Asia and such a conclusion is also supported by the OCAI test of East Asia. However, it is possible to establish some sub-regional monetary cooperation firstly. Furthermore, East Asia would be able to establish a Monetary Union like the EMU after a long-term hard working.