CAJ | 학술논문

伴随着我国金融业全面开放、人民币国际化进程的逐步推进，人民币汇率与利率的互动关系研究越发重要。本文基于名义汇率与名义利率坐标空间的理论分析表明：（1）有管理浮动汇率制有助于实现经济系统向内外均衡理想状态靠拢；（2）适当推行资本账户管制放松政策符合市场经济改革要求；（3）维持汇率稳定的外汇市场干预政策会导致外汇储备非均衡，并使经济系统远离均衡。运用协整分析与向量自回归模型，本文实证考察了人民币名义汇率与利率的互动关系。通过理论与实证研究，我们发现人民币名义汇率与利啐之间存在交替互动关系，表现为两者各自做出“盘整-上升-盘整-下降-盘整”的反应，并且当一方存在明显的上升或下降趋势时另一方处于调整状态。本文进而指出应充分尊重市场力量的自发作用，建立利率政策与汇率政策协调机制，促进宏观经济向内外均衡靠拢。
반수착아국금융업전면개방、인민폐국제화진정적축보추진，인민폐회솔여리솔적호동관계연구월발중요。본문기우명의회솔여명의리솔좌표공간적이론분석표명：（1）유관리부동회솔제유조우실현경제계통향내외균형이상상태고롱；（2）괄당추행자본장호관제방송정책부합시장경제개혁요구；（3）유지회솔은정적외회시장간예정책회도치외회저비비균형，병사경제계통원리균형。운용협정분석여향량자회귀모형，본문실증고찰료인민폐명의회솔여리솔적호동관계。통과이론여실증연구，아문발현인민폐명의회솔여리쵀지간존재교체호동관계，표현위량자각자주출“반정-상승-반정-하강-반정”적반응，병차당일방존재명현적상승혹하강추세시령일방처우조정상태。본문진이지출응충분존중시장역량적자발작용，건립리솔정책여회솔정책협조궤제，촉진굉관경제향내외균형고롱。
With Chinese financial opening and RMB internationalization carrying on, the study on the correlation between RMB exchange rate and interest rate is more important. This paper gives a framework which shows that （1） managed floating exchange rate regime is good for realizing internal and external equilibrium, （2） capital account liberalization is needed, and that （3） foreign exchange interventions for maintaining exchange rate make economy go wide of equilibrium. With the help of theoretical and empirical methodology analysis, the paper finds that there is some alternate recurrent linkage between RMB nominal exchange rate and interest rate. Both of them have ＂adjustment-increase-adjustment-decrease-adjustment＂ responses and when one is increase or decrease, the other is in adjustment. The paper points out that we should respect the spontaneous action of market forces when the macro-economy does some adjustments to come to its internal and external equilibrium. And we should harmonize the RMB exchange rate policy and interest rate policy.