CAJ | 학술논문

利用VAR模型从需求角度分析投资、消费、进口、出口对我国国内生产总值的动态影响，结果表明：最终消费和资本形成是共同决定我国经济增长的Granger原因；投资具有长期平均负弹性效应；出口在前4年有正的产出弹性，后5年表现负弹性，而进口一直表现负弹性。因此，要保证我国经济的高速稳定增长，应走高水平投资加消费带动型发展道路，并提高自我创新能力，改善进出口产品结构。
이용VAR모형종수구각도분석투자、소비、진구、출구대아국국내생산총치적동태영향，결과표명：최종소비화자본형성시공동결정아국경제증장적Granger원인；투자구유장기평균부탄성효응；출구재전4년유정적산출탄성，후5년표현부탄성，이진구일직표현부탄성。인차，요보증아국경제적고속은정증장，응주고수평투자가소비대동형발전도로，병제고자아창신능력，개선진출구산품결구。
VAR Model is used to analyze the dynamic influence of investment, consumption, import and export on China＇ s gross domestic production from the angle of demand. The results show that both final consumption and capital formation are the Granger reason to determine China＇ s economic growth, that investment has long-term negative elastic effect, that the export had positive output elasticity in the former four years but has negative elasticity in the latter five years and that import has negative elasticity all the time. As a result, in order to ensure rapidly stable economic growth of China, China should stick to high-level investment and consumptiondriving development direction, improve self-innovation ability and improve import and export products structure.