CAJ | 학술논문

针对常规土壤侵蚀统计模型适应性不强、模拟精度欠佳等问题，对灰色离散序列高阶动态模型进行扩展，建立了多变量高维指数非线性模型，提出非线性参数的搜索-辨识方法．参数搜索-辨识较为简便易行．该模型具有信息包容量大、模型结构开放性强、适应性广泛等特点；利用实测数据模拟结果表明，复相关系数R^2〉0．96，平均误差率δ〈15％；模拟优度大大提高，模拟精度可满足工程应用的要求．
침대상규토양침식통계모형괄응성불강、모의정도흠가등문제，대회색리산서렬고계동태모형진행확전，건립료다변량고유지수비선성모형，제출비선성삼수적수색-변식방법．삼수수색-변식교위간편역행．해모형구유신식포용량대、모형결구개방성강、괄응성엄범등특점；이용실측수거모의결과표명，복상관계수R^2〉0．96，평균오차솔δ〈15％；모의우도대대제고，모의정도가만족공정응용적요구．
Based on development of grey separate-sequence and higher-step dynamic Model, multi-variable and higher-dimension exponential non-linear model was established, and the methods of searching-identifying non-linear parameters was developed aiming at limited applicability and low simulated precision of general statistical models of soil erosion. The model＇s strongpoint is great information contain, strong opening of model＇s structure, wide applicability and so on. Searching-identifying parameters is simple and operated. Observed values were applied on the model. The results showed that multiple correlated coefficient Rz is greater than 0.96, and mean error ratio δ is less than 15 %. The simulated optimization and simulated precision advanced significantly. Natural resource, environment, techengineering and social economy have plentiful phenomena of higher-dimension, non-linear, non-normal process and problems of forecast and control. In these field or similar field, the model has diffuse applicability and good applied foreground in future.