CAJ | 학술논문

文章采用1994～2007年的季度数据计量检验了基于抵消系数和冲销系数模型的中国国际收支双顺差与央行货币供给动态关系，采用递归参数方法估计了中国的动态冲销系数，并讨论了央行冲销政策工具的有效性，得出结论：自2001年以来，央行净国外资产的增加成为国内流动性过剩的绝对重要来源；2004年以来，我国央行的冲销系数发生了结构性变化，2004年前维持在一0.6左右，2004年后央行的冲销干预接近于完全冲销（-1），这在一定程度上保证了货币供给的独立性，实现了货币政策的数量目标；受限于利率尚未市场化、资本市场不发达等影响，央行票据成为冲销流动性的最重要工具，法定存款准备金率成为央行常规工具，且还具有一定的操作空间。
문장채용1994～2007년적계도수거계량검험료기우저소계수화충소계수모형적중국국제수지쌍순차여앙행화폐공급동태관계，채용체귀삼수방법고계료중국적동태충소계수，병토론료앙행충소정책공구적유효성，득출결론：자2001년이래，앙행정국외자산적증가성위국내류동성과잉적절대중요래원；2004년이래，아국앙행적충소계수발생료결구성변화，2004년전유지재일0.6좌우，2004년후앙행적충소간예접근우완전충소（-1），저재일정정도상보증료화폐공급적독립성，실현료화폐정책적수량목표；수한우리솔상미시장화、자본시장불발체등영향，앙행표거성위충소류동성적최중요공구，법정존관준비금솔성위앙행상규공구，차환구유일정적조작공간。
Using the quarterly data from 1994 to 2007,our paper estimates the dynamic relationship between ＂two surpluses＂ of BOP and monetary supply based on offset and sterilization coefficient, estimates recursive dynamic sterilization coefficient and discusses the effectiveness of specific sterilizing tools. The conclusion is that, since 2001, the rapid accumulation of net foreign assets has been the most important sources of domestic excess liquidity,and before 2004 the sterilization coefficient stood around--0.6,and since 2004 the coefficient has shown the complete sterilization, which to some extent realizes the quantitative object of monetary supply. For the limitation of unmarketizing interest rate and undeveloped capital market,central bank＇s bonds have been the most important sterilizing tools and the statuary reserve ratio became regular tools. And these tools have some room for the further operation.