CAJ | 학술논문

2006年以来伴随着人民币对美元的持续升值，我国对外出口继续高速增长。汇率是否是影响中国贸易的主要因素，中国出口增长的主要驱动是什么？本文通过建立中国与美国、欧盟、日本、韩国贸易的协整模型．并通过Granger因果检验、脉冲相应函数、方差分解等方法分析了汇率对贸易的影响.在此基础上，对2006年前三个季度的出口增长进行了因素分解，找出影响我国出口的核心因素，并进行了汇率压力测试，找出汇率升值的理论上限，进一步提出相关的政策建议。
2006년이래반수착인민폐대미원적지속승치，아국대외출구계속고속증장。회솔시부시영향중국무역적주요인소，중국출구증장적주요구동시십요？본문통과건립중국여미국、구맹、일본、한국무역적협정모형．병통과Granger인과검험、맥충상응함수、방차분해등방법분석료회솔대무역적영향.재차기출상，대2006년전삼개계도적출구증장진행료인소분해，조출영향아국출구적핵심인소，병진행료회솔압력측시，조출회솔승치적이론상한，진일보제출상관적정책건의。
With the RMB appreciation verse US dollar in 2006, China＇s export keeps growing quickly. Is exchange rate the main factor of China＇s export？ What is the main driver of China＇s export growth？ This paper makes the co-integration models based on Chinese export data and makes an analysis on the influence of RMB appreciation to exports by way of Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method. It further studies the export growth of the first three quarter of 2006 and finds the core factors. Then it calculates the ceiling of RMB appreciation and proposes some suggestions.