CAJ | 학술논문

直接法在考虑国际收支平衡表正常统计项目的基础上，通过对隐藏在贸易、直接投资等渠道中的资本流动进行合理调整，估算出中国金融资本流出流入规模。结果表明，中国正经历着金融资本的双向流动，且隐性资本流动占据主导地位。经济发展和人民币升值预期是影响资本流动的重要因素，放松资本管制在短期内难以缓解升值压力，长期内国内金融市场深化将促进金融资本有序正常流动。
직접법재고필국제수지평형표정상통계항목적기출상，통과대은장재무역、직접투자등거도중적자본류동진행합리조정，고산출중국금융자본류출류입규모。결과표명，중국정경력착금융자본적쌍향류동，차은성자본류동점거주도지위。경제발전화인민폐승치예기시영향자본류동적중요인소，방송자본관제재단기내난이완해승치압력，장기내국내금융시장심화장촉진금융자본유서정상류동。
Taking the normal statistics on Balance of Payments into account, we make some adjustments to the capital flow hidden in trade, FDI etc. to estimate the scale of financial capital directly. It shows China is now experiencing financial inflow and outflow on large scale simultaneously and the hidden capital plays a more important role. Expectation on RMB appreciation as well as economic growth will influence capital flow. It is of little effect for deregulation from capital account in short term, but in the long run reform and opening in domestic financial markets will be effective to promote the financial flow regularly.