CAJ | 학술논문

关于人民币是否应该升值的分歧，集中在人民币汇率升值是否会影响中国经济增长这一问题上。对汇率变动与经济增长之间的关系的实证检验，是基于11个发达国家和9个发展中国家1975—2005年的面板数据。研究结果表明，对于发达国家，汇率升值是扩张性的，这与“紧缩性贬值”理论所提出的观点相一致；而对于发展中国家，汇率升值具有紧缩效应。因此，“紧缩性贬值”理论所预测的“汇率升值会引起扩张效应”的观点，在发展中国家并不成立。对于发展中国家来说。尤其是正在进行汇率调整的中国，汇率变动应该采取更加谨慎的政策。
관우인민폐시부응해승치적분기，집중재인민폐회솔승치시부회영향중국경제증장저일문제상。대회솔변동여경제증장지간적관계적실증검험，시기우11개발체국가화9개발전중국가1975—2005년적면판수거。연구결과표명，대우발체국가，회솔승치시확장성적，저여“긴축성폄치”이론소제출적관점상일치；이대우발전중국가，회솔승치구유긴축효응。인차，“긴축성폄치”이론소예측적“회솔승치회인기확장효응”적관점，재발전중국가병불성립。대우발전중국가래설。우기시정재진행회솔조정적중국，회솔변동응해채취경가근신적정책。
The controversy on whether RMB should be appreciated is focused on whether appreciation of exchange rate for RMB may affect China＇ s economic growth, This study is an empirical test of the relationship between changes in exchange rate and economic growth based on a panel data of eleven developed countries and nine developing countries from 1975 to 2005. The results indicate that in developed countries, appreciation of exchange rate are expansionary as is in consistence with the theory of ＇lcontractiorkary devaluation＂, whereas in developing countries such appreciation has the effect of contraction. Therefore, the prediction that ＂appreciation of exchange rate may lead to effects of expansion＂ according to the theory of ＂contractionary devaluation＂ is incorrect in developing countries. It is argued that in developing countries, especially in China where exchange rate is being adjusted, policy-makers should be more prudent when they consider changes in exchange rate.