CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用中国八省1056个农户的微观面板数据，采用四种滤子算法分别估计了农户的持久收入和暂时性收入。以此为基础，在持久收入假说的理论框架下分析了中国农户储蓄行为。经验研究的主要结论包括：①中国农户的储蓄行为受到流动性约束和预防性动机的影响，二者都显著地提高了农户的储蓄，降低了农户消费水平。并且，对于低收入人群，流动性约束提高储蓄的效应更加明显；②农户储蓄函数的估计结果一致拒绝了标准持久收入假说的确定性等价推论，拓展的持久收入假说更适合刻画中国农户的储蓄行为。
본문이용중국팔성1056개농호적미관면판수거，채용사충려자산법분별고계료농호적지구수입화잠시성수입。이차위기출，재지구수입가설적이론광가하분석료중국농호저축행위。경험연구적주요결론포괄：①중국농호적저축행위수도류동성약속화예방성동궤적영향，이자도현저지제고료농호적저축，강저료농호소비수평。병차，대우저수입인군，류동성약속제고저축적효응경가명현；②농호저축함수적고계결과일치거절료표준지구수입가설적학정성등개추론，탁전적지구수입가설경괄합각화중국농호적저축행위。
Using a sample of 1056 households＇ panel data from rural area China, this paper analyses the response of saving to transitory and permanent income by means of 4 filters. The main findings include that the liquidity constraints and precautionary incentive increase the farmer＇s saving and the liquidity constraints have more important effect for the poor household. The estimation indicates the rejection of PIH, farm household save a significance higher fraction of transitory income than permanent income.