CAJ | 학술논문

以历届奥运会举办国参赛项目在举办届与非举办届的金牌数和我国奥运项目2008年得金优势为研究对象，对举办国参赛项目在举办届和非举办届的得金比进行T检验，发现举办国参赛项目在举办届时的得金比明显高于非举办届，表明奥运会举办国参赛项目存在举办国优势。对奥运会举办国参赛项目得金优势进行聚类分析，把所有奥运会项目划分为高优势项目、中优势项目和低优势项目3大类。从数据分布特点来看，奥运会项目举办国优势并没有表现出明显的项群特点。最后，结合我国各参赛项目雅典奥运会竞争实力、项目发展潜力和计算出的各奥运会项目举办国优势，综合评价2008年奥运会我国男女参赛项目的举办国优势，并据此确定各项目参赛目标，按照目标把所有参赛项目归为超越雅典、保持金牌、突破金牌、力争奖牌4大类。
이력계오운회거판국삼새항목재거판계여비거판계적금패수화아국오운항목2008년득금우세위연구대상，대거판국삼새항목재거판계화비거판계적득금비진행T검험，발현거판국삼새항목재거판계시적득금비명현고우비거판계，표명오운회거판국삼새항목존재거판국우세。대오운회거판국삼새항목득금우세진행취류분석，파소유오운회항목화분위고우세항목、중우세항목화저우세항목3대류。종수거분포특점래간，오운회항목거판국우세병몰유표현출명현적항군특점。최후，결합아국각삼새항목아전오운회경쟁실력、항목발전잠력화계산출적각오운회항목거판국우세，종합평개2008년오운회아국남녀삼새항목적거판국우세，병거차학정각항목삼새목표，안조목표파소유삼새항목귀위초월아전、보지금패、돌파금패、력쟁장패4대류。
Taking gold medals won by host countries between home and away in summer Olympic games and the achievement of Chinese Olympic events as the study subjects, and using the statistics methods, the paper quantified the home advantage of Olympic events by which classified the Olympic events, furthermore estimated the home advantage of Chinese Olympic events. The resuits as following：（i）The percentages of gold medals won by host country in a given event in home is bigger than away and the difference between home and away varies in different event. （ii） the home advantage of Olympic events are existed and different event has different home advantage, however, the home advantage of Olympic events dose not feature events group. （iii）in 2008 Olympic games, 18 events in China may win gold medals： 7 man＇s events and llwomen＇s events, which must be paid more attention to in the program of preparation for 2008 Olympic game. （iiii）China still have enough potential events to win further gold medals in 2008 Olympic games and women have a higher ability to do so.