开放导报
開放導報
개방도보
China Opening Herald
2008年
2期
96~101
,共null页
财务危机 预测模型 财务指标 非财务指标
財務危機 預測模型 財務指標 非財務指標
재무위궤 예측모형 재무지표 비재무지표
Financial crisis, predicting model, financial index, non-financial index
本文选取我国证券市场上446家制造业上市公司，以因财务状况异常而被ST作为公司进入财务危机为标志，分别建立了基于财务指标的危机预测模型、基于非财务指标的危机预测模型和基于混合指标的危机预测模型，并对模型的预测结果进行了比较分析。分析发现，财务指标模型对于训练样本预测精度好于非财务指标模型，但模型外推性（稳定性）不如非财务指标模型。财务指标模型和非财务指标模型的互补性较强。混合指标模型兼具了单指标类型模型的优点，对于训练样本和测试样本的预测精度都具较高水平。
本文選取我國證券市場上446傢製造業上市公司，以因財務狀況異常而被ST作為公司進入財務危機為標誌，分彆建立瞭基于財務指標的危機預測模型、基于非財務指標的危機預測模型和基于混閤指標的危機預測模型，併對模型的預測結果進行瞭比較分析。分析髮現，財務指標模型對于訓練樣本預測精度好于非財務指標模型，但模型外推性（穩定性）不如非財務指標模型。財務指標模型和非財務指標模型的互補性較彊。混閤指標模型兼具瞭單指標類型模型的優點，對于訓練樣本和測試樣本的預測精度都具較高水平。
본문선취아국증권시장상446가제조업상시공사，이인재무상황이상이피ST작위공사진입재무위궤위표지，분별건립료기우재무지표적위궤예측모형、기우비재무지표적위궤예측모형화기우혼합지표적위궤예측모형，병대모형적예측결과진행료비교분석。분석발현，재무지표모형대우훈련양본예측정도호우비재무지표모형，단모형외추성（은정성）불여비재무지표모형。재무지표모형화비재무지표모형적호보성교강。혼합지표모형겸구료단지표류형모형적우점，대우훈련양본화측시양본적예측정도도구교고수평。
This thesis explored predicting model of financial crisis by choosing 446 manufacture companies in stock market which being ST （Specially Treated） status and in financial crisis as the sample. The author found three types of financial crisis predicting models： financial-variable model, non- financial-variable model, mixed-variable model. Then, We finished a severe comparative analysis of predicting accuracy of these models. The results showed that predicting accuracy of financial-variable model is higher than non-financial-variable model for estimation sample, but lower for validation sample. Thereby Financial-variable model and non-financial-variable model are well mutually complementary. At the end, Mixed-variable model has the advantages of both financial-varible model and non-financial-variable model.
