CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化问题已经成为制约经济发展、影响社会福利的重要因素。如何在经济稳定发展的前提下实行有效的气候保护政策是一个重要的研究课题。以State-Contingent模型和Demeter模型为基础建立一个宏观动态模型。该模型主要包括三个模块：宏观经济模块．气候变化模块．人地关系协调的决策选择模块．以此分析不同气候保护政策对经济的影响。模型在考虑了增汇、技术进步等因素的基础上．针对生产型、增汇型、能源替代型三种气候保护政策作了模拟情景分析。通过模拟计算得到在不实施任何气候保护政策下中国历年的CO2排放和GDP、效用等结果，然后与实施不同气候保护政策所得结果进行比较。研究发现在实行单一气候保护政策时。增汇型政策和能源替代型政策远优于生产型替代政策；而混合型政策要优于任何单一政策。
기후변화문제이경성위제약경제발전、영향사회복리적중요인소。여하재경제은정발전적전제하실행유효적기후보호정책시일개중요적연구과제。이State-Contingent모형화Demeter모형위기출건립일개굉관동태모형。해모형주요포괄삼개모괴：굉관경제모괴．기후변화모괴．인지관계협조적결책선택모괴．이차분석불동기후보호정책대경제적영향。모형재고필료증회、기술진보등인소적기출상．침대생산형、증회형、능원체대형삼충기후보호정책작료모의정경분석。통과모의계산득도재불실시임하기후보호정책하중국력년적CO2배방화GDP、효용등결과，연후여실시불동기후보호정책소득결과진행비교。연구발현재실행단일기후보호정책시。증회형정책화능원체대형정책원우우생산형체대정책；이혼합형정책요우우임하단일정책。
Climate change is a constraint to economic progress and human welfare. How to constitute efficient emission policies and ensure economic steady developing is an important task. In this paper we make a climate protection model which considers the relation between human and ecology. Based on the State-Contingent Model and Demeter Model and within the theoretic framework of new economic growth, this paper presents a dynamic macroeconomic model of climate protection with the intention of analyz/ng the impact of greenhouse gases （ GHG ） emission in China at different C02 abatement policies. The model used to analyze economic effeeto of deffrent climate protection policies include three modules： macro economic module, cliamate change module and decision-making model reflecting the Man-l-and relationship＇s coordination. Three chmate protection pohcies in the model have been analyzed： increasing carbon sink, energy alternation and production reduction. Based on the modelling of the computer system, we get nrany results of CCh, GDP and utility of each year in the scenorio of no any protection policies. By choosing various climate protection pohcies and adjusting their control rates and style of their combination, we simulate the impact of various climate protection policies on the national macroeconomic growth. We find that when only one policy is carried out increasing carbon sink and energy alternation are more efficient than production reduction, but mixed policy is good than any sole policy.