CAJ | 학술논문

国外大量的研究表明，战略风险与收益的关系存在被称为“鲍漫悖论”（Bowman＇s paradox）即负相关关系的现象。文章摒弃了资本资产定价、均值方差等传统的战略风险度量方法，借鉴序数信息下系统组织整体不确定性度量的熵法，把战略风险转化为企业在战略参考系统内收益排名（竞争位置）下降带来的负面不确定信息，给出了序数战略风险度量的一般模型，这个方法符合战略风险的战略本质。通过收集中国上市公司上证50指数36家企业的收益数据，运用该模型方法，根据事件研究思路，对战略风险与收益的相关关系进行了中国情景下的多次验证，得到战略风险与收益的一致负相关关系。这个结果表明，高风险不一定带来高收益，企业持久竞争优势的获取不仅源于高收益，更是长期高收益一低风险的绩效产出结果。
국외대량적연구표명，전략풍험여수익적관계존재피칭위“포만패론”（Bowman＇s paradox）즉부상관관계적현상。문장병기료자본자산정개、균치방차등전통적전략풍험도량방법，차감서수신식하계통조직정체불학정성도량적적법，파전략풍험전화위기업재전략삼고계통내수익배명（경쟁위치）하강대래적부면불학정신식，급출료서수전략풍험도량적일반모형，저개방법부합전략풍험적전략본질。통과수집중국상시공사상증50지수36가기업적수익수거，운용해모형방법，근거사건연구사로，대전략풍험여수익적상관관계진행료중국정경하적다차험증，득도전략풍험여수익적일치부상관관계。저개결과표명，고풍험불일정대래고수익，기업지구경쟁우세적획취불부원우고수익，경시장기고수익일저풍험적적효산출결과。
A large number of foreign studies have found a negative rela- tionship between strategic risk and return, which is known as ＂Bowman＇s paradox＂. The paper employs the entropic measure of system uncertainty under the ordinal information, abandoning the traditional CAPM and meanvariance approachs. Through defining the strategic risk as negative uncertainty information when enterprise loses rank with return （competitive position） in a strategic reference system, the paper gives a general strategic risk measurement model. According to a train of thought of event study, correlations analysis using data from 36 Chinese companies listed on the SSE 50 indicates that the existence of negative relationship between strategic risk and return is significant and constant in Chinese context. The result shows that high risk does not necessarily lead to high return, and enterprisers sustainable competitive advantage is not only obtaining from the high return, but resulting in long-term high return-low risk performance outputs. The study is very important to reframe strategic risk theory and to change the attitudes in strategic management practice.