CAJ | 학술논문

以1999年1月至2006年12月我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入的历史数据为研究对象，运用指数平滑预测模型、向量自回归预测模型、单积（单整）自回归移动平均预测模型和灰色GM（1，1）预测模型对我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入分别建立4个单项预测模型，同时根据组合预测相关理论构建我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入的组合预测模型，并采用该组合预测模型对2007年1月至2010年12月我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入进行了预测和展望。结果证明：各单项预测模型的预测值与实际值的拟合效果较好；备单项预测模型的预测精度较高，而组合之后模型预测精度进一步提高，说明组合预测模型比单项预测模型更加可靠；预测结果显示未来几年内我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入将保持持续增长态势。
이1999년1월지2006년12월아국체육용품제조업산품월소수수입적역사수거위연구대상，운용지수평활예측모형、향량자회귀예측모형、단적（단정）자회귀이동평균예측모형화회색GM（1，1）예측모형대아국체육용품제조업산품월소수수입분별건립4개단항예측모형，동시근거조합예측상관이론구건아국체육용품제조업산품월소수수입적조합예측모형，병채용해조합예측모형대2007년1월지2010년12월아국체육용품제조업산품월소수수입진행료예측화전망。결과증명：각단항예측모형적예측치여실제치적의합효과교호；비단항예측모형적예측정도교고，이조합지후모형예측정도진일보제고，설명조합예측모형비단항예측모형경가가고；예측결과현시미래궤년내아국체육용품제조업산품월소수수입장보지지속증장태세。
Taking the monthly sales income of China＇s sports manufacturing product from January 1999 to December 2006 for the study and with four prediction models were established based on the exponential smoothing prediction model,vector autoregressive prediction model,single plot（single whole） reunification moving average and prediction Gray GM （1,1）. Then the integrated prediction model based on sports manufacturing product sale income in China was set up, which was adopted to predict the monthly sales income of the sports manufacturing products from January 2007 to December 2010. The results showed that figures of single event based on the prediction model could match the actual figures. The integrated prediction model proved to be better. The prediction indicated a stable rise in the sales income in the following years.