金融理论与实践
金融理論與實踐
금융이론여실천
Financial Theory and Practice
2008年
6期
3~6
,共null页
信用风险 中小企业 预警模型 非财务因素
信用風險 中小企業 預警模型 非財務因素
신용풍험 중소기업 예경모형 비재무인소
Credit Risk; Small-medial Enterprise; Pre-warning Model; Non-financial Factor
相当多的研究已证明财务因素能有效预测借款人违约风险，而非财务变量的预警能力仍不明确。为检验非财务变量预警能力，本文建立了三个假设，利用调查数据，建立了Logistic回归模型检验假设，结果表明：1．财务变量提前预警效果明显；2．加入非财务变量后，模型预警能力得到显著提高；3．预警模型分类效果显著优于随机分类。
相噹多的研究已證明財務因素能有效預測藉款人違約風險，而非財務變量的預警能力仍不明確。為檢驗非財務變量預警能力，本文建立瞭三箇假設，利用調查數據，建立瞭Logistic迴歸模型檢驗假設，結果錶明：1．財務變量提前預警效果明顯；2．加入非財務變量後，模型預警能力得到顯著提高；3．預警模型分類效果顯著優于隨機分類。
상당다적연구이증명재무인소능유효예측차관인위약풍험，이비재무변량적예경능력잉불명학。위검험비재무변량예경능력，본문건립료삼개가설，이용조사수거，건립료Logistic회귀모형검험가설，결과표명：1．재무변량제전예경효과명현；2．가입비재무변량후，모형예경능력득도현저제고；3．예경모형분류효과현저우우수궤분류。
While considerable research has proven the suitability of financial factors to predict borrower default, the role of non-financial factors remains ambiguous. To test the ability of non- financial in pre-warning model, this paper firstly established three testable hypothesizes. Secondly, using the data from a survey, this paper established models of Logistic. The result shows that firstly the financial factors have obviously results in pre-warning model. After non-financial factors are introduced, the ability of pre-warning of the model is obviously improved. Thirdly, the classification of the model has a superior result than random method.
