CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究了电信投资对我国经济增长的贡献以及贡献值变化的趋势。利用我国2000--2005年31个省市的数据，建立和估计了两者之间的系统结构方程。结果发现我国电信投资对我国经济增长的边际贡献平均为2．376％，比其他社会基础投资高6．758％，但电信投资的边际贡献呈现下降趋势。分区域考察的结果表明，电信投资及其贡献存在着明显的区域非均衡，在西部对生产率的促进作用远远高于东部和中部；我国西部应加大对电信的投资，东部需要调整投资结构，而中部则应采取措施刺激电信消费。本文在同类研究中取得了一定突破，和Roller与Waverman（2001）的研究结论相反，得出的实证结论与他们在网络效应和边际贡献方面的理论预测相反，对制定电信投资决策具有指导作用。
본문연구료전신투자대아국경제증장적공헌이급공헌치변화적추세。이용아국2000--2005년31개성시적수거，건립화고계료량자지간적계통결구방정。결과발현아국전신투자대아국경제증장적변제공헌평균위2．376％，비기타사회기출투자고6．758％，단전신투자적변제공헌정현하강추세。분구역고찰적결과표명，전신투자급기공헌존재착명현적구역비균형，재서부대생산솔적촉진작용원원고우동부화중부；아국서부응가대대전신적투자，동부수요조정투자결구，이중부칙응채취조시자격전신소비。본문재동류연구중취득료일정돌파，화Roller여Waverman（2001）적연구결론상반，득출적실증결론여타문재망락효응화변제공헌방면적이론예측상반，대제정전신투자결책구유지도작용。
In this paper we investigate how telecommunications infrastructure investment affects economic growth by estimating a structural model with the data set covering 31 provinces and six years from the year 2000 to 2005. We find that the average marginal effect of telecommunications investment is 2.376 percent, which is higher than social infrastructure investment by 6.758 percent, but it takes on a decreasing trend. The empirical study on different regions reveals that there is distinct regional disequilibrium that the investment contribution to productivity in the West is much higher than that in the others, which is opposite to the instinct. Therefore, it is imperative to keep increasing investment in the West, make a structural adaptation in the East and stimulate telecommunications consumption in the Middle. Our study breaks through the previous literature and draws a conclusion opposite to Roller and Waverman（2001）, which will be helpful for telecommunications investment decision-makers.