CAJ | 학술논문

基于目前偏重《国发[2005]38号》基础养老金的激励效应分析而很少研究财务可持续性问题，本文运用精算理论，构建了衡量财务可持续程度的支付能力精算模型。结果表明，新政策实施后，养老金待遇提高了，但支付能力的下降幅度超过了25％，并出现支付能力不足。提高投资收益率、逐步延长退休年龄以及合理调整养老金替代率和增长率，是提高支付能力的重要办法。
기우목전편중《국발[2005]38호》기출양로금적격려효응분석이흔소연구재무가지속성문제，본문운용정산이론，구건료형량재무가지속정도적지부능력정산모형。결과표명，신정책실시후，양로금대우제고료，단지부능력적하강폭도초과료25％，병출현지부능력불족。제고투자수익솔、축보연장퇴휴년령이급합리조정양로금체대솔화증장솔，시제고지부능력적중요판법。
The paper constructs the actuarial model of the basic pension system and modifies its solvency formula. The solvency decreases about 25% after the new policies go into effect although the pensions increase. The methods used to increase the solvency include improving the investment return, gradually prolonging retirement age and reasonably adjusting the pension replacement rate and growth rate. It＇s a very significant task how to reprogram the pension treatment if we want to get sustainable pension system.